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Introducing UltraCrap, An Exercise In Stupidity

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January 11, 2010 – Comments (27) | RELATED TICKERS: C , RAP.DL

The idea just sort of popped into my head.... why not start up a second account for giggles and point out all of the incredibly bad investments in the market. So far this weekend I've amassed in excess of 160+ companies, funds, and investment vehicles which I suspect would make poor investments/trades in relation to the S&P 500.

Keep in mind that this new portfolio is just a running watch list of trades and investments that I think are poor ideas and not recommendations to mortgage your house against these plays. In addition, this secondary portfolio is done a lot in jest, especially since it will only contain short recommendations and was done on the challenge of some CAPSters who claimed a short only portfolio could not make it to the top. I have no clue if a short-only port will make it to the top, but I thought it'd be fun to give it a try. I will not be keeping track of this secondary portfolio nearly as much as my standard UltraLong portfolio, nor will I be posting commentary or blogs under this portfolio. As I said, consider this like a real-time watch list of the crappiest investing ideas on Earth. If you want to make any commentary on this portfolio, feel free to make your posts on my UltraLong blog board.

So without further adieu, let the fun begin..... I introduce you all to UltraCrap!

http://caps.fool.com/player/ultracrap.aspx

UltraLong

27 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 11, 2010 at 3:42 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I think a pure red thumber can be top fool, but cannot have top score over the long haul.  I've already favorited UltraCrap and look forward to seeing all the red thumbs you're going to choose.

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#2) On January 11, 2010 at 4:57 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

I'm not sure who is arguing that a short-only couldn't make it to the top.  If anything, CAPS favors red thumb portfolios due to the focus on accuracy.  The top 100 has a disproportionately large number of portfolios that are heavy on red thumbs. 

EverydayInvestor has scored 11000 on red thumbs and -300 on green thumbs.  He was #1 for a long time.  

TMFEldrehad has scored more than 100% of his points on red thumbs, as well.

SpecBear was #1 for a good time and was predominantly a red thumb portfolio.  

Dwot was #1 for awhile and is almost exclusively red thumb.

TheGreatSatan has been ranked consistently high and has scored almost all points from red thumbs.

 

So, I don't really know why anyone would argue you couldn't make it to the top with a red thumb only portfolio.  It's the opposite argument that's much more difficult to make.  It's almost impossible to be #1 with a green-thumb only portfolio due to CAPS' accuracy component. 

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#3) On January 11, 2010 at 5:30 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I disagree with at least 50% of the biopharma calls of ultracrap. I can't go into more detail before I see them ...

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#4) On January 11, 2010 at 8:34 AM, ZaksDad (78.83) wrote:

Let me send you my non-mechanical portfolio - you won't need to do any more than red thumb each of these picks to soar to the top of the charts!

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#5) On January 11, 2010 at 10:03 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#3 I do like ARIA,CLDA,EXAS,TRGT.

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#6) On January 11, 2010 at 10:43 AM, FreeMortal (29.37) wrote:

Ultracrap could be the gamebreaker we need.  At this point, I'm rooting for ultracrap for top fool.

I feel a little guilty picking red thumbs because I would never consider actually shorting 90% of them. 

 

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#7) On January 11, 2010 at 7:42 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

I'm not trying to disrespect UL, but in my opinion (without any in-depth analysis), other than the great, great call he made on 3/9/09 (by red-thumbing all bear ETFs and green-thumbing all bull ETFs), he has an average performance on individual stocks.

OK, he's also good at scoring easy 10-20 points on pullbacks (by red-thumbing stocks after huge one-day or one-week advances, and he's also good at finding crapy OB and PK stocks, but I don't think he's that good to red-thumb his way into the top 500 Fools.

Once again, JMO (and once again, I'm not trying to be disrespectful).

Good Luck!

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#8) On January 11, 2010 at 7:55 PM, DownEscalator (< 20) wrote:

I notice UC chose almost exclusively on recent run-ups over 20% and not on fundamentals (MOO as a red-thumb long-term?).

Does this mean UL expects a broad pullback over the next few months?

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#9) On January 11, 2010 at 8:00 PM, topsecret09 (39.58) wrote:

   While I have to agree that a lot of these look pretty shaky, I did my DD on (PEIX) and at a 400 % profit In seven trading days I am out for now with real money. However,I do feel In the longer term that this company Is viable. I have explained this In greater detail when I picked this stock as my TOP SPEC stock for 2010....  I think you have this one wrong.......  we'll see.........   TS

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#10) On January 11, 2010 at 8:10 PM, TigerPack1 (86.69) wrote:

When I first saw the link to this post, I thought boy, UltraLong is going to be pissed someone is stealing his name...I think you should trademark Ultra in CAPS.

My advice would be to stick to 1 and 2 star picks that jump in price on a short-squeeze for a few weeks or months.

This would be a good test for a 1 and 2 star ONLY "short" member, being "filtered' by a smart, experienced investor, like we were talking about on anchak's blog today.  Good Luck!  Perhaps when you get some practice in and a decent score above 99 we can think about adding UltraCrap to TigerPackFund?  http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=325479&t=01009413387152518323

P.S. I found 5 or 6 on your initial list that I like or own in the real world on the long side.

-Tiger Out

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#11) On January 11, 2010 at 8:12 PM, TigerPack1 (86.69) wrote:

Just had a thought, perhaps I should start a similar short-biased member and call it - TigerCrap!

LOL

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#12) On January 11, 2010 at 10:00 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

DownEscalator,

One thing you'll notice is for the time frames I kept them as unspecified. I'm not focusing on UltraCrap as much as UltraLong so there is a possibility some of these may be flip trades and others may be long term holds. What does stand out is that the fundamentals of the majority of the companies I picked out on this list are actually crap.... (thus UltraCrap). As for the AgriBusiness fund, yes I'm expecting a pullback marketwide and simply look for large divergences between index averages and the MOO index.

UltraLong

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#13) On January 12, 2010 at 5:17 PM, Tastylunch (29.33) wrote:

Wow HomeFed (HOFD.ob). I can't believe those guys are still around. I think I've redthumbed them like 4-5 times now. Was score leader for a long time.

price to sales of 33! That's even worse than I remember!

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#14) On January 12, 2010 at 7:50 PM, selfdestruct2 (32.02) wrote:

Ford ? Really?

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#15) On January 13, 2010 at 12:42 PM, Griffin416 (99.97) wrote:

I have enjoy your blog for some time and respect your opinion. I only diagree with 2 picks. MOO (which was explained above), now makes some sense. But BYDDY.pk? I have been buying this stock on pullbacks. Why red thumb it?

Thanks, Griffin

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#16) On January 13, 2010 at 6:21 PM, creek138 (30.25) wrote:

If you haven't met the antithesis to your portfolio, I strongly recommend taking a look. Some of his posts are "punfully" hilarious

 http://caps.fool.com/player/onestarhero.aspx?source=iersitlnk0000002

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#17) On January 16, 2010 at 2:11 AM, shortgains (< 20) wrote:

wow ultracrap is doing good

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#18) On January 18, 2010 at 8:40 PM, georcole (43.42) wrote:

UL,

Most of the leaders are predominantly red thumbers, so it seems that an all red thumb account can make it. You already have an account that is doing well while predominantly picking red thumbs. It would be an interesting challenge to see if you can pick all green thumbs and do well like portefeuille has with his yes man account.

Best of luck,

George

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#19) On January 19, 2010 at 2:55 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Georcole,

Way ahead of you. I've been compiling a list of potential green thumbs and weeding through them. My goal would be to introduce my Yes man portfolio after a market dip which is long overdue, but I'm to the point where I really don't care what the market does as long as the stocks I pick do as they should. Very soon I shall introduce you all to my other and final experimental fund, UltraOlympus. It could be a few days or weeks, but it's coming.

UltraLong

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#20) On January 19, 2010 at 3:39 AM, ozzfan1317 (80.58) wrote:

I have a second profile myself comprised entirely of just my Portfolio.

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#21) On January 19, 2010 at 11:10 AM, creek138 (30.25) wrote:

Ozz, Too bad gains in cap score do not directly correlate to RL, eh?

3 years out and I'm still looking forward to breaking even...someday

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#22) On February 05, 2010 at 2:55 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

On January 11, 2010 at 7:42 PM, dragonLZ (97.92) wrote:

I'm not trying to disrespect UL, but in my opinion (without any in-depth analysis), other than the great, great call he made on 3/9/09 (by red-thumbing all bear ETFs and green-thumbing all bull ETFs), he has an average performance on individual stocks.

OK, he's also good at scoring easy 10-20 points on pullbacks (by red-thumbing stocks after huge one-day or one-week advances, and he's also good at finding crapy OB and PK stocks, but I don't think he's that good to red-thumb his way into the top 500 Fools.

Once again, JMO (and once again, I'm not trying to be disrespectful).

Good Luck!

Rank: 972 and climbing in less than one month

UltraLong

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#23) On February 05, 2010 at 4:32 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

Quite a reversal today, don't you think?

UL, what can I tell you? As you said before: there is a lot of crap outthere.

I'm quite impressed (and I'm sure I'm not the only one) with your performance so far.

You, once again, proved you have an excellent timing (even though one wouldn't come to that conclusion looking at your Olympus portfolio), and you know how to pick crapy OB and PK stocks. And that's exactly what I said above.

In your Top 10 scorers (in your Crap portfolio), there are no "real" stocks: all ultra ETFs, OB, and PK stocks.

In your Top 20, only 4 are real stocks.

However, still an excellent performance. My investing knowledge is so limited I'd never be able to do something like this. So, Congratulations!

p.s. I still think you'll need a lot of help from Mr. Market to get and stay in Top 500.

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#24) On February 08, 2010 at 8:26 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

UL, I really have to tell you something:

I'm very impressed with the performance of your Olympus portfolio.

I did mention it above for its bad timing (last 3 weeks were tough for "green" portfolios), but performance of this portfolio is really exeptional. I'm not kidding.

Down only 30 points while market had quite a drop lately, and down only a point today while DOW was down 100 points. WOW.

I see Olympus already has one stock with 80+ points, one with 30, a few with 10+ points. And all of that while market took quite a beating... Nice.

I just had to say this as before I was always quick to call you out on your (few) bad calls.

Slowly, I'm becoming a believer that you are good at this investing stuff... :)

I'm really anxious to see how's Olympus going to perform once the market starts to go up again.

Good Luck!  

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#25) On March 03, 2013 at 7:17 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I still think you'll need a lot of help from Mr. Market to get and stay in Top 500.

market did not help, I guess ;)

 




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#26) On March 03, 2013 at 7:24 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I do like ARIA,CLDA,EXAS,TRGT.



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Forest Labs 'Takes Under' Clinical Data

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#27) On March 03, 2013 at 7:48 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#3,5,26


ARIA ≈ $2.37 -> $20.93 (+773%),
CLDA ≈ $18.00 -> $30.00 (+67%) + CVR,
EXAS ≈ $4.10 -> $10.98 (+168%),
TRGT ≈ $20.06 -> $4.32 (-78%).

Thus an equal-weighted portfolio of those 4 would be in the green by a little over 230% now.

yeay :)

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