Valyooo's Blog

Stop blaming the exchange

Valyooo — Thu, 23 May 2013 15:51:53 GMT

I have been watching CNBC all day....and EVERY time there has been a gap down opening in the last few years, people complain about the stock exchange not being well regulated

1) If you think your stock was "unjustly" plummeted lower, BUY MORE OF IT

2) If you entered a market order...

What caused the 30 year treasury bull market?

Valyooo — Wed, 22 May 2013 19:17:31 GMT

From 2000-now , it seems like mostly a risk rotation reason and especially post 2008, as central banks tried to lower rates due to crappy economy.....but what about 1981-2000? When the economy was raging and same with stocks, why were rates going down constantly as the market was going up?

Where does credit card debt and margin debt come from?

Valyooo — Tue, 21 May 2013 15:43:19 GMT

So when a bank creates a loan, the new bank credit is created on the spot....it is "created out of thin air". What about margin debt and credit card debt though? The credit card company has to pay the merchant with actual cash , and the broker lending margin has to pay off the seller of the stock with cash

when I see articles like "margin debt hits all ...

Do credit expansion and contraction really lead to price level changes?

Valyooo — Mon, 06 May 2013 15:31:04 GMT

So I know the technical definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply, but in this blog I will refer to inflation as meaning price inflation, just to make less typing.

I have often heard that an increase in credit expansion leads to inflation. I don't see why.

If money (cash) is printed, then there is more money c...

Why do banks accept deposits?

Valyooo — Thu, 02 May 2013 14:14:31 GMT

I don't really understand why banks accept deposits. With fractional reserve banking they can lend out far more cash than they take in. I'm not even sure if the banks even have a reserve requirement anymore. So why bother spending all that money paying interest and sending out statements, since the banks can lend out whatever consumers will borrow regardless of te amount of cash in the bank? Is it to legitimize te system?

"This is a bull market for stocks, not the economy"

Valyooo — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 16:42:18 GMT

MoneyWorksForMe posted this in DragonLZ's last blog. This something I hear all of the time (with slight variation in words), but I never understand it.

Yes, what the Fed is doing is not good long term for the economy, the printing press is crazy, etc.

But if the economy is doing so horrible, and its just stocks going up because the fed putting a floor on the mark...

Seriously, how does weakening a currency help exports?

Valyooo — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 14:28:03 GMT

Besides the fact that japan had an incredibly strong currency for 20 years while being an export leader, I think people don't understand the difference between cause and effect. The following is the example I am always given for how weakening a currency helps exports. I will use incorrect round numbers to make things simple.

Eur/usd = 2

Price of a car in euros = ...

The "pricing-it-in" conondrum

Valyooo — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 16:20:36 GMT

Much finance and economic theory states that over the long run, all assets should give the same returns, otherwise markets are inefficient. I'm pretty sure most people on here know that is hogwash. I was giving some thought to the process of how that would even possible, and I don't see how that could theoretically be possible.

So it is obvious that some fields are going to grow at a higher pace fo...

Thoughts for beginners part 6: Trading and investing are like driving

Valyooo — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 22:51:07 GMT

I am more of a macro investor than individual stocks...not the best with those. I remember there were a bunch of questions that I had that confused me when I was brand new. A handful of CAPS players got me to where I am today, so I am offering my opinion on a few misconceptions. There will probably be about 10 of these blogs over the course of a few weeks.

This sixth blog is a little d...

Thoughts for beginners part 5: How risky are options?

Valyooo — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 17:51:36 GMT

Thoughts for beginners part 4: Read everything, formulate your own opinion

Valyooo — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 17:50:12 GMT

For part four I want to focus...

Thoughts for beginners 3: Is shorting as risky as they say?

Valyooo — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 00:22:26 GMT

In this blog I want to ...

Thoughts for beginners part 2: Fundamental and technical analysis are usually the same thing

Valyooo — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 22:35:07 GMT

Thoughts for beginners Part 1: Book value of CEF's

Valyooo — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 19:59:02 GMT

Government figures not adding up to private sector?

Valyooo — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 14:25:56 GMT

This bull market is being driven up to all time highs, off of 1) an improving job market 2) improving ISM numbers and other productivity numbers

But GOOG, JCP, all of the banks, and other companies are laying off thousands of workers.

And the s&p has negative earnings growth for q1...first time since 2007.

The two best paragraph's I have read on my problem with socailaism

Valyooo — Fri, 22 Feb 2013 14:14:41 GMT

From the abstract "Profit and Loss" By Ludwig van Mises. Sorry about the weird formatting.

"However, in talking about equality and asking

vehemently for its realization, nobody advocates a curtailment of his own present income. The term equality

as employed in contemporary political language

Does anybody know a website that lets you know when stocks are being added to a major index? I would like to backtest how the stock reacts in the following months ( I would expect bullish).

Thanks in advance.

Can't rate stocks

Valyooo — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 14:07:31 GMT

I tried to pick outperform on a few things and I got "Access denied- you cannot visit THIS part of the site" and there are no outperform or underperform buttons for me. Anybody know what that's about?

My correction prediction, for fun

Valyooo — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 01:59:02 GMT

I was wrong last time, but I will try again. Seems people are starting to talk correction, so heres my prediction, pretty specific:

Fundamentally: Earnings are starting to look terrible, bernanke knows he wont be in office forever, Europe is getting worse, China is slowing down, according to gann predictions more war will be next year...just a ton of bad going o...

Question for people using Elliot Wave

Valyooo — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 17:30:35 GMT

Recently I met a trader who is trying to train me to help manage his portfolio, but he wants me to learn elliot wave.

I have made a blog like this before, and I have asked many people before, and I never seem to understand the answer.

I just read this line in the book, and it confuses me to no end, and has forever.