HistoricalPEGuy's Blog

LNKD: A Great Model for Investing in Growth Stocks

HistoricalPEGuy — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 00:26:53 GMT

Given the 1-star rating that LNKD has on CAPS, a lot of players took a big loss on Friday. How could so many people be wrong?

Easy - they were fooled (pun intended) by the valuation of the stock. Sadly, many investors just look at P/E - as if its the end-all, be-all of all metrics (and I understand the irony of my handle). That said, some investors just simply thought that LinkedIn couldn't k...

WWWW - Special K's Article on Seeking Alpha

HistoricalPEGuy — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 00:59:13 GMT

A very rare thing happened today - a single blog by "Special K" made WWWW's stock price drop by 12%. You can find the article at:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/752051-wwww-the-case-of-the-non-cash-cash-flow

First and fore...

Don't Listen to the DRIP Fallacy

HistoricalPEGuy — Sun, 03 Jun 2012 00:59:40 GMT

Over and over again, I hear investment professionals quote the amazing power of DRIPs - Dividend Reinvestment Plans.

In these volitile periods, betting on companies with growth and divedend is a great strategy - but risk is all around us. The best way to avoid risk (when interest rates are going nowhere) is to have cash on hand. As the market continues to fall, betting on h...

My rare WWWW post

HistoricalPEGuy — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 01:09:31 GMT

I've enjoyed being the sole Web.com enthusiast over the past 5 years. Small Cap investing is a ton of fun if you find that one company and research the hell out of it to realize the entire market doesn't have a clue. Its unfortunate that CAPS doesn't let you double, triple or quadruple bet positions. But then again, the Top Fools would be lucky SOBs who found one h...

An Unexpected Response to "Moneyballing the Financial World"

HistoricalPEGuy — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:30:10 GMT

David Gartner's recent artilce on "Moneyballing the Financial World" was inspiring. I work in the field of Analytics and it really is a game changer for companies to increase profits and revenues by simply knowing the stats and using them to optimize all aspects of their business.

But when it comes to prognostication, one has to be very careful - especially if what you are predicting is la...

S&P Beers on Marketplace

HistoricalPEGuy — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 23:41:51 GMT

I don't know if any of you caught him on NPR/IPM's Marketplace today, but I was shocked at his "defensive" positioning. My favorite part was when asked about the "trustworthiness" of S&P, given the fact that they had Lehman Brothers at such a high rating days before their meltdown. His answer was, something like (AND I AM PARAPHRASING) "well, that wasn't MY group that did that, it was some other dys...

Oil Field Services in Charge

HistoricalPEGuy — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 21:47:09 GMT

I blogged several months ago about the power OFS companies like SLB have when times are good. They can charge even more for their services by being selecting the only the best deals. The CEO of SLB made that point today very clearly...

"Gould said it will be a continuing challenge for the company "to supply both the North American and international markets with the required equi...

The AMRI Rocket Ship

HistoricalPEGuy — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 01:00:39 GMT

3-2-1 Blast-off!!!!!

AMRI is incredibly undervalued at this level and institutions are taking notice. The volumes on AMRI are really strong and its not short selling. In this humble fools opinion, the stock is simply trading below value.

Take a moment to really understand AMRI - especially their allegra cash flow. $4 is just plain silly - this is ready to g...

Oil Field Services: The Only Way to Play

HistoricalPEGuy — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 00:59:30 GMT

Many companies stand to profit from the current uncertainty around oil. XOM, COP and many others will do quite well. That said, the real money is in Services.

Why? Small independants have found many new plays to get at oil. The only problem - its really freaking expensive. But now - with oil topping $100, these small independants are ready to invest.

Are Tablets for Real in Corporate America?

HistoricalPEGuy — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 00:46:09 GMT

The market crushed NVDA and ARMH today. It would seem that the love affair with tablets might be a bit overdone. Barron's Tiernan Ray says that the situation is "comical" and that there will be an "epic glut" later this year.

In my workplace, many coworkers are bringing iPads to meetings and replacing their laptops. My customers, often travelling sales people, are addicted...

WWWW Finally Gets its Due

HistoricalPEGuy — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 00:30:31 GMT

I haven't blogged in years, but its very fulfilling to see the market get on board after I've been smacking down tons of capital in this small cap. My last blog was on how stupidly cheap WWWW was in 2008. Its nice to know that I called it right.

By the way, its still got a little more room to run. My end of year price target is $16.00 for neutral risk and $14.50 on the cons...

WWWW is Hyper-Undervalued

HistoricalPEGuy — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 00:21:47 GMT

I am just floored by the current market reaction to WWWW. Let's look at some numbers

Earnings (per share)
Quarter Ending Mar-08 0.15
Quarter Ending Dec-07 0.10
Quarter Ending Sep-07 0.13
Quarter Ending Jun-07 0.12
Quarter Ending Mar-07 0.12

Just Ended - Jun-08 --- 0.18
Projected -- Sep 08 --- 0.21
...

Falling Knife Realization

HistoricalPEGuy — Sat, 31 May 2008 02:29:21 GMT

I had a wonderful realization lately about the market that I'd like to share. Many of you have probably already realized this, but I have finally got there.

The market doesn't care that a stock has dropped 80%.

Doesn't seem like that bold of a statement, until you put human emotions into play.

As a value investor, I'm constantly on the lookout for cheap s...

WSPI - What Happened?

HistoricalPEGuy — Tue, 13 May 2008 23:39:37 GMT

WSPI got pounded today after their earnings call on Monday. But Why?

They beat earnings estimates by a penny. They missed revenue estimates by $500,000 - it was supposed to be $31.5 mil and came in at $31 mil.

If you are like me, you think - a 13% drop for beating estimates and missing by a measly $500 grand? Doesn't make sense!

My buddy ctojeira (on Caps) and I couldn't figure it out. It had...

What the $%@&*# ?

HistoricalPEGuy — Thu, 08 May 2008 14:43:14 GMT

Does anybody really believe in this stuff? Have you ever really made money using analysis like this? I can't even rationalize it or even begin to justify it. Its the equivelant of voodoo. Is there somebody out there that can defend an analysis like this?

Drilling: Simple Facts

HistoricalPEGuy — Wed, 07 May 2008 00:10:03 GMT

1) Oil rich nations, companies and drillers are all using a benchmark of $60 to $70 a barrel of oil to make investment decisions.

2) There isn't a single deepwater rig available - even if you wanted one, you can't get one.

3) Few drillers are building on spec, though some are, like Pride. Pay before you play, is pretty much the name of the game - a conservative strategy that will keep costs in line for most drillers.

I've spent some time doing my homework tonight, looking at some stocks that are beaten down but have good growth stories - and I just keep coming back to the Oil Patch. One exception - OMPI - they are a "biotech" - but not really. They are in the business of skin care, none-the-less, that stock is exciting.

But I digress. NOV, BOOM and CBI are on my radar screen, but I just can't convince myself to pull the trigger on these guys ...

Chipotle vs Qdoba

HistoricalPEGuy — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 00:47:23 GMT

There is nothing to say. I visited a Qdoba a week ago in the Mall of America while on business there. Holy cow, does that food suck. It was grade B all the way. It tasted like Chili's or some other run of the mill stuff. Chipotle's ingredients are just so fresh and taste oooooo so good. I hate the valuation, but I just love the food. I really like the chain - don't love the stock as much as I absolutely love that food.

From Texas, I had to tune into the Hillary vs Obama debates. It was quite painful - not because I'm against dems, but because I just don't like politics that much. The libertarian platform is the only thing that makes any sense to me - and they haven't got a prayer - Ron Paul is the closest thing (and used to be libertarian) and he's never had a shot. Looks like I'll be voting libertarian again...

Anyway, the healthcare refo...

In Comes the Tidewater

HistoricalPEGuy — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 01:17:53 GMT

It feels good not to panic. It really does. There are great opportunities out there, you just need to look hard. No free rides though, you gotta do your research and there maybe some pain while you wait for the market to recover. Those waiting until the pain is gone - I wish you luck. Timing the market is like trying to catch a fly with chopsticks. You might think you can "wax on" and "wax off" as good as