EScroogeJr's Blog

So there is no bubble, huh?

EScroogeJr — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 09:49:06 GMT

Panel Cites Surge in Speculative Oil Trades By Stephen Power and Ian Talley Word Count: 782

WASHINGTON -- Speculative traders' interest in crude oil has grown to the point that they now account for roughly 70% of all trading in West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange, compared with 37% in 2000, according to an investigation by a congressional subcommittee that forms part of an escalating political assault on Wall Street's r...

Dear oil minister

EScroogeJr — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 12:08:02 GMT

Please don't do this nonsense. Do the right thing instead. Cut production from 9.7 mln barrels to 9 billion barrels. It's better to sell 9 million barrels for $200 each than to sell 10 billion barrels for $100 each. Help our economy arrive to the Recessionville, it's almost there, but it won't reach the destination without your help. The babyboomers' assets are lying there crying to be purchased for 30 cents on the dollar.

Just one word: wow!

Saudis decide to play Chamberlain

EScroogeJr — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 19:20:16 GMT

The Saudis act like a timid gangster who pulls out a knife only to have second thoughts and put it back. This never works on the streets of Chicago, and it won't work in the US-Saudi ralationship either.

The Saudis had two options. One was keep the price under $20 and hope consumers will never move to develop alternative technologies becuase $20 is so cheap. The other was to hike prices to the maximum and hope to earn enough windfall profits before Am...

Wow! What an election campaign!

EScroogeJr — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 09:48:17 GMT

Sure it won't happen during his lifetime. It doesn't sound too reassuring for his cause, given the fact that the 84-year-old Mugabe has already lived way past his actuarial life expectancy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080614/ts_afp/zimbabwevotemugabe_080614120934

HARARE (AFP) - ...

Party line: there's no inflation except when oil is rising

EScroogeJr — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 09:01:50 GMT

I think I know how he will resist the erosion of inflation expectations: by saying he is detrmined to resist the erosion of inflation expectations. The Fed pretends that expensive oil is the problem, and the market pretends to believe him.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080613/economy.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Inflation shot up in May at the faste...

Don't fuel inflationary expectations, Kohn says.

EScroogeJr — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 13:52:15 GMT

Let me also contribute my 5 cents worth of kerosene. Meat inflation has yet to kick in. When grain went up, farmers began to slaughter animals, driving meat prices still lower, which made raising animals even less profitable, which caused them to slaughter some more, etc. This is obviously not sustainable. When they have slaughtered the last chicken and the last cow, the agflation will start for real. Meat is a crucial component in Americans' diet, more important than grain. By...

BP chairman rejects "apocalyptic" talk of $250 oil

EScroogeJr — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 08:50:57 GMT

Just as I said, Gazprom is one of the stupedest energy companies in the whole world. Will you believe it, these cookoos really base their future plans on hopes for $250 oil. Good luck with it.

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I don't understand it. So now they're unhappy about cheap Chinese imports? Do they have some other country in mind that can fill Walmart with cheap goodies, or maybe they imagine that the 3 million jobs will come back to America if the yuan goes up another 20%? We'll simply pay more for the same goods, which will increase, rather than decrease, the deficit.

Few people paid attention, but yesterday the ITB dropped below 16, meeting floridabuilder's condition for buying. So I jumped at the opportunity and bought some KBH and PHM. As I told you many times, my strategy was to accumulate builders gradually over the year and then keep them locked in a safe for the next 2 years, so I couldn't buy a full position yesterday, but I made my position complete by buying the last remaining shares that I wanted. On a positive note, last week's h...

The reason I think oil is doomed (in response to FourthAxis)

EScroogeJr — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 20:13:28 GMT

Yes, count me in as a big grizzly permabear. I fully believe that the oil industry as we know it today has 15 years of life ahead of it, and even that is optimistic. Why? Because the numbers tell the story. Look at this graph:

World AnnualPhotovoltaic Production, 1975-2007

OK, the current excuse is that the puppets are getting out of control. This still raises the question who is next in line for confiscation. Do you still think your currency reseves held in US banks are safe?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/us-issues-threat-to-iraqs-50bn-...

oil bubble begins to pop?

EScroogeJr — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 21:49:25 GMT

When another portion of lies from Bernake creates a wave of selling, one can only conclude that oil had risen to an unsustainble level.

I like this market better and better.

EScroogeJr — Wed, 28 May 2008 20:31:18 GMT

I really can't understand how anybody can be bearish at this point. The reason it doesn't make sense is that a) The subprime crisis is almost over, everybody who wanted to walk away did, everybody else is saved by the bailout package that will materialize in the next few weeks b) The banking crisis is over after the bankruptcy of Bear Stearns, c) Oil price has got as far as it can possibly get, and d) The Dow has dropped almost as far as it can possible drop before Bernanke sen...

Are people capable of understanding what their interests are?

EScroogeJr — Wed, 28 May 2008 12:24:12 GMT

TMF Bent has this to say about Hussein O$ama in a comment to this post:

"He doesn't really want more bank regulation, because if he gets it, home prices will drop even more, loans will be harder to get, and more expensive, and more of his constituency (smug youngsters and urbanites who believe an inex...

Case-Schiller: a really useless index

EScroogeJr — Tue, 27 May 2008 10:29:27 GMT

The Case-Schiller index is often quated as an evidence that prices are tumbling. Now, this conclusion is dead wrong. There is almost zero correlation between the index and your chances of getting a reasonable price for a house. Why? For two reasons. First, the Case-Schiller is a weighted index. In other words, when a $10M castle gets 1% cheaper, and 100 $100K houses get 1% more expensive, the index thinks that prices are stable. So when the top decile that did get a...

A poll: who is better at promoting homelessness?

EScroogeJr — Sat, 24 May 2008 01:54:17 GMT

Take a real problem, unpleasant but not that hard to solve. Then take a bunch of professional activists who are out of a real job and make their living by exploiting the problem. Then take a bunch of officials who have money that needs to be wasted. Then take private interests who are eager to meet that need and want to make sure that the problem, the officials, and the public funds are still in place tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after that. Mix it all together, spr...

Now, here's the bubble that I like

EScroogeJr — Fri, 23 May 2008 17:22:55 GMT

To pay $130 for a barrel of worthless liquid hoping that an even greater fool will buy it from you for $140 is bad enough, but at least you can burn it, producing some calories in the process. Now, buying shares of producing companies, drilling companies, exploration companies,and oil rig producing companies, and paying a PE of 10 for these shares at the very peak of the bubble is a much crazier idea. You have a dying industry that has maybe 10 years of life ahead of it, and yo...

What moron said that housing inventory is at a maximum?

EScroogeJr — Fri, 23 May 2008 12:47:26 GMT

I am still following NY price trends. So about 3 weeks ago I signed up to receive free email alerts from The New YorkTimes real estate section each time a new property appears on the market. (For those of you who don't live here, The New York Times is the most comprehensive online source of data; if an ad appears in some other newspaper, on an agency web site, on Craigslist, Yahoo, you name it, and if the seller is serious and the ad is not a fraud, it will be in NY Times). So ...

What happens when we run away from Irak?

EScroogeJr — Thu, 22 May 2008 16:42:22 GMT

I'm wondering why this issue receives so little attention, but the fact is, the US economy is now looking an athlet running with 20-pound dumbells attached to his legs. From the investing standpoint, the cowboy's Irak adventure was a godsend because this is one reason we still can buy stocks so cheaply. This is not PE=3, to be sure, but putting illusions aside, stock prices are as cheap as they are likely to get. All right, but everything good comes to an end, and this includes...