XMFConnor's Blog

Potential Multi-Bagger

XMFConnor — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 03:35:01 GMT

Schuff International (SHFK): Cheap, Ugly, and a Potential Multi-Bagger

Investment Overview

Schuff International is cheap at less than half of book value, ugly as a cyclical and highly levered construction company, and a potential multi-bagger with the continued recovery in construction spending. While casual onlookers of the stock may view it as extremely risky--- high d...

Steinway: Strong Brand, Hidden Value, Multiple Catalysts

XMFConnor — Tue, 04 Sep 2012 17:58:21 GMT

Steinway Musical Instruments (LVB) has many of the attractive elements I look for in an investment: a dominant market position in its core business, solid downside protection, hidden asset value, smart and incentivized insiders, and several foreseeable catalysts all rolled into a small-cap, underfollowed stock. I believe this $25 stock is worth ~$47 (88% upside) and that there are several probable catalysts (as early as Q3 this year) that could ...

Focus on Risk and Eliminating Investing Mistakes

XMFConnor — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 11:18:51 GMT

New post! Focus on Risk and Eliminating Investing Mistakes:http://bit.ly/SrWhJg

Focus on Risk and Eliminating Mistakes

Why $RDI Reading International is not a buy:http://bit.ly/O6FPHC

How to link to your CAPS Profile?

XMFConnor — Fri, 10 Aug 2012 17:34:43 GMT

Does anyone know how to provide a link to your CAPS profile that does not require logging in?

I want to do this, but if you log out and provide the link to your username, it asks you to log in or register.. any help with this?

LookSmart Tender Offer (LOOK) about to expire

XMFConnor — Tue, 07 Aug 2012 12:06:22 GMT

The LookSmart tender offer looks very attractive. I think this is the last day you can get it into your broker before it expires.

Trades at $0.84 (below net cash), offer is for $1.00 from two hedge funds trying to get control. There is risk here, but I think it is minimal since your are buying less than cash and the HF's are incentivized to get control (and quickly). Even if they dont get 50%, I think they wil...

No Private Messaging on CAPS?

XMFConnor — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 12:03:47 GMT

Why is there no private messaging on CAPS? This has always bugged me, and seems like a useful and basic feature.

I LOVE CAPS but think a few tweaks like this are desperately needed to keep the community going strong given increased competition from other sites (GuruFocus, SA, heck even Twitter #$$$).

Risk Control

XMFConnor — Sat, 28 Jul 2012 01:34:58 GMT

“The road to long-term investment success runs through risk control more than through aggressiveness. Over a full career, most investors’ results will be determined more by how many losers they have, and how bad they are, than by the greatness of their winners. Skilled risk control is the mark of the superior investor” – Howard Marks

How to track foreign insider purchases?

XMFConnor — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 15:29:16 GMT

Does anyone know how to track foreign (not registered with SEC) insider purchases? Any recommendations (including paid sites) that would allow me to do this efficiently would be super appreciated!

XMFConnor

Great Day to be a Fool

XMFConnor — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 04:28:26 GMT

You have to love today.. :)

Amazing Special Situation Opportunity

XMFConnor — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 00:49:37 GMT

*This is similar to a recent post I made, but with a small tweak to my base case valuation

Fools,

In this post, I will briefly describe one of my favorite current investments, the reasons behind it, and walk you through my

http://variantperceptions.wordpress.com/2012/01/20/munger-on-patience-2/

"There are a lot of things we pass on. We have three baskets: in, out and too tough. A lot of stuff goes into the ‘too tough’ basket. We can’t do that if it’s a...

The Value of Patience

XMFConnor — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 03:35:50 GMT

Fools,

Reviewing my investment process lately, I have realized that one of biggest problems has been impatience. I have ruined many good investment ideas by selling too early.. typically because I haven't allowed my thesis enough time to play out. It's almost painful to remember some of them.. AAPL at $90.. (though I did buy back at $200) and NFLX at $40 are just two that come to mind. It has happened probably...

Favorite Special Situation Investment

XMFConnor — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 13:37:06 GMT

Fools,

In this post, I will briefly describe one of my favorite current investments, the reasons behind it, and walk you through my investing checklist. I will include a more organized, detailed write-up later, but just wanted to get my thoughts down.

The compa...

Advice from David Einhorn

XMFConnor — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 01:48:54 GMT

Fools,

David Einhorn has always been one of my favorite investors. Because of the recent insider-trading issue, we have access to a call he made with a CEO. Anytime you get to pick someone's brain or get access o how someone thinks about it, I think it's pretty valuable. Here is the transcript:

In my last blog post, A Value Investor's Mea Culpa, I highlighted some of the mistakes I have made in investing lately. Most of them have involved a lack of an "investing process." Because of this, I decided I needed to impose some own rules on myself to keep me accoun...

Value Investor Mea Culpa

XMFConnor — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 11:23:42 GMT

Fools,

I am afraid I have been a fool. Examining my past couple months of returns, this became obvious. While the returns havenot been disastrous, they should have been better. In fact, I would say I am lucky I have not done worse (down about 2% on year) given the many traps and shortcuts I have fallen into. I have diverged from the process that has historically led to my success-- and this post is aimed to ke...

Options Question

XMFConnor — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:09:46 GMT

Fools,

I am a long-time stockpicker, but relative noob in the options world. I am hoping some more experienced options Fools can give me a bit of advice on this one..

When selling out of the money puts, how do you determine how many puts to sell (how to size the position)?

I am looking at a stock I really like right now with puts tha...

Gold Question: Primero Mining

XMFConnor — Sat, 31 Dec 2011 19:35:46 GMT

Fools,

I am a long-time investor, but relatively new to gold investing so I am hoping a more experienced metals investor can help me out here.

I have been researching PPP latley, but can't seem to understand some of their financials. For example, for the three months ended Sept 30, 2011, the following financials are given (from here:

Trade: Sell (short) the March 16, 2012 $5 put option?

Things are bad at RST, but not as bad as everyone is making them out to be. After poor quarterly results and the CEO announcing he will step down, I think a lot of the distressed selling has been done. To further enhance my margin of safety, however,I sold far out of the money (farthest they offer) puts at $5, expi...