TMFMmbop (97.57)

So much awesomeness...

November 20, 2009 – Comments (0)

Now the good news: Without getting into the complexities, our models show our combined net worths at just over $1 billion, all of which we'll use as capital for Money Unlimited. We hired a 22-year-old right out of college who's pretty darn good with Excel. He assures us it's a conservative figure.  [more]

I've never wanted to invade France as much as I do now...

November 20, 2009 – Comments (3)

Warning: The language is a little explicit, but if you can get past that, then "Hitler's" reaction to the Thierry Henry handball that cost Ireland its chance at the World Cup is pretty funny:

  [more]

It's never as good nor as bad as it seems

November 18, 2009 – Comments (2)

Back in January and February, near the market bottom, I wrote a few columns about China that were met with significant resistance. Take a look, for example, at some of the comments left here. I was bullish on China given the valuations at the time and was going about bulding diversified exposure to China via several companies. While one of those companies (AOB) did not work out, others such as CGA worked our fabulously. But the point is that when I presented these ideas on Fool.com, I got comments like these:

Perhaps if those of us who have had experience in asia keep hammering away at the Motley Fools naivete regarding China -as in "People's Republic of", perhaps they will get the message. China only granted people the right to own private property in 2004. Subjecting Chinese companies to the same forms of analysis as you would a US company is unrealistic. I wouldn't buy Iranian government bonds either. These are countries that make up written rules as they go along and abide by some very old unwritten rules that only apply to insiders.

Fast-forward nearly a year and China stocks have generally very well, and too well in some cases. So just this week I penned an article on 3 Chinese stocks I think have gotten ahead of themselves, and perhaps not suprisingly I was met with resistance again!

There was this:

Frankly, I currently care more about "100% trustworthy accounting regulations" in the west that in China. China will grow in any case for the next decades. And it will grow using its rules (a balanced mix of planned economy and free market), not ours. We may like this or not but that is.

And this:

The 3 short candidates mentioned are not all well-researched. Any prudent investors can and should dig down deeper to NTES and CNTF's financial data and will find very good numbers, growth and prospects which we found.

To sum up, when I wrote positively about China when the stocks were down, people pointed out all of the negatives about China. And when I wrote negatively about China now that the stocks are up, people pointed out all of the reasons why Chinese stocks will outperform. These, in other words, are contrary indicators.

But when the market was down people focused on the negatives, and they're focusing on the positives now that the market is up. It's classic market "intelligence," and it's something we all need to fight against. I was reminded of this today while reading Michael Pettis's latest column. He wrote:

There is too much acceptance at face value that China has managed to escape the crisis fairly well, and that there are no serious concerns within the country.

Actually, people had serious concerns 12 months ago, but are now whitewashing them again since GDP growth has returned. When something goes awry, however, those serious concerns will come back.

But it is never as good nor as bad as it seems. And that's one secret to making money in the stock market.  [more]

Who saw this coming?

November 17, 2009 – Comments (14)

During the best of the times, Miguel Salcedo’s son, an illegal immigrant in San Diego, would be sending home hundreds of dollars a month to support his struggling family in Mexico. But at times like these, with the American economy out of whack and his son out of work, Mr. Salcedo finds himself doing what he never imagined he would have to do: wiring pesos north.

Read it all at the NY Times. Our economy is troubled.  [more]

51% of China's SOEs are Unprofitable

November 17, 2009 – Comments (3)

That's just one of a number startling statistics revealed in China's Once and Future Rise, an impressive package of analytical articles on the country/economy from our friends at World Politics Review. Read all of the articles below:

Structural Flaws Will Limit China's Rise
Although China has made significant progress since reforms began 30 years ago, the country continues to deal with income inequality, government corruption, and a political regime that is resistant to change. What does this mean for China's aspirations?

Ready or Not: China's Fifth Generation Leaders
Slated to come into power in 2012, the next generation of China's political leadership will have critical issues to deal with. Who are they and what are there overriding goals?

China as Rival, Competitor and Partner
As China grows into a world power, what will the relationship be with the US? Our two countries have myriad shared and divergent interests, and it will be a delicate balancing act.

These are all premium, subscription articles, but WPR has been kind enough to grant free access today to readers of this blog. All they ask in return is that if these are the kind of articles you like to read, you consider taking a free trial to the publication. Click here to do that.  [more]