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leaderoftheback's rating is 47.39.

  • Score: -401.62 (26th percentile)
  • Accuracy: 60.41% (94th percentile)

A player's rating indicates his percentile rank in CAPS. leaderoftheback is outperforming 47.39% of all CAPS players. A player's score is the total percentage return of all his picks subtracting out the S&P. A player's accuracy is how often that player has made correct predictions.

To calculate a player's rating, we take 2/3 of his score percentile and 1/3 of his accuracy percentile. For further information, read the Player Ratings section of the Help page.

Average Pick Score is a player's total score divided by the total number of picks (active and closed). It represents the player's average return after subtracting out the market's performance.

Average Pick Rating is the average stock rating of a player's total picks. Underperform picks are flip-flopped, so a underperform call on a one-star stock is treated like an outperform call on a five-star stock. This rating reflects how closely your picks are aligned with CAPS ratings.

Ratings last updated at 5:02 PM 8/26/2016.

leaderoftheback (47.39)

leaderoftheback lost to the market on Friday

Player Rating CAPS Rating

47.39

Rank: 39422 out of 74932
Score: -401.62 (-9.73)
Accuracy: 60.41%
Average Pick Score: -1.49
Average Pick Rating:
All-Time Best: UNFI +225.24
All-Time Worst: HPY.DL -199.83

Score Comparison vs. leaderoftheback

Player History

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leaderoftheback's Latest Blog Post

Recs

0

Cal-Maine Update; walking on egg shells...

July 30, 2016 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CALM

 
Caution on CALM. I'm working on another "napkin estimate," but here are the underlying facts that should give you pause:

The average egg cost in Q4 '15 was $1.48. In Q4 '16, 69¢. Not surprisingly, CALM reported a loss for the quarter.

I haven't had enough time to pay much attention to the (stock) market lately, so I grabbed a cheat from the Market Realist. While I will assume the numbers they offer are correct for the recent past, I can say with certainty that their report does not reflect current reality.

Two things cause me great worry; Q4 egg prices as reported by CALM were down 22%. The actual egg market was down 53%. What this tells me is that CALM did not fully participate in the overnight rise in egg prices last May. This is not entirely surprising, but it is a good thing to know; CALM lacks a certain amount of pricing power.

The second thing is this little tidbit: egg prices in Q1 to date. 2015; $2.07. This year: 59¢. Note that 59¢ is significantly less than 69¢, and at 69¢ CALM lost money. The second and a half thing; egg prices actually went up for a couple of weeks. But, uh...last week they were 48¢. There is only a month left in this quarter, so I'm going to be optimistic and suggest that the full quarter average egg price will be about 60¢ vs. last year when they were $2.24.

A most valuable lesson, one I rarely (actually never) have had is access to "(not really) inside information," which I can use to evaluate what is being written by very smart people who are evaluating this stock. Either they aren't paying attention to Urner-Barry, which is a no-brainer, or they have a pernicious agenda. For anybody to suggest that CALM might be a good buy here is extremely ignorant of the basic facts I have offered up.

To those in search of a decent dividend, perhaps (probably) many have stuck with CALM to "see what happens." After all, this is not the first time they've not paid a quarterly dividend. But I predict a second losing quarter, and again no dividend. At some point in the next few months, people will be fleeing from this stock.

I promise more detail and an actual earnings prediction when I can find time. But I can predict with great conviction a losing Q1.

-Randy
who is going to buy CALM again...but not for a while.   [more]

leaderoftheback's Stock Picks

Results 1 - 63 of 63  

picks per page. CHANGE Expand All Pitches

Top
Pick
Start
Date
TickerCAPS RatingCallTime FrameStart PriceToday (Change)Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
ScorePitch
06/27/16 SKX Outperform 5Y $26.98 $24.72
( -0.76%)
-8.38%+9.22%-17.60 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/02/16 GWR Outperform 3M $65.01 $68.85
( -0.20%)
+5.91%+5.01%+0.90 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
02/11/16 CBI Outperform 5Y $31.57 $31.17
( -1.08%)
-1.26%+18.88%-20.14 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/27/16 CALM Underperform 3M $48.93 $44.08
( -0.74%)
-9.92%+14.36%+24.27 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/11/16 TRN Outperform 5Y $20.40 $24.46
( -0.41%)
+19.92%+14.40%+5.52 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/11/16 NOV Outperform 5Y $29.16 $34.54
( -1.88%)
+18.44%+12.81%+5.63 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/19/15 IIVI Outperform 5Y $18.70 $21.37
( -1.04%)
+14.28%+4.17%+10.11 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/13/15 SSYS Outperform 5Y $22.96 $23.05
( -0.60%)
+0.39%+6.21%-5.82 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/12/15 KMI Outperform 5Y $23.41 $21.47
( -0.19%)
-8.29%+5.28%-13.57 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/06/15 SWIR Outperform 5Y $18.82 $14.39
( -0.07%)
-23.52%+3.63%-27.15 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/27/15 DDD Outperform 5Y $10.63 $16.04
( +0.06%)
+50.85%+5.31%+45.54 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
08/24/15 MOS Outperform 5Y $36.04 $27.60
( -3.16%)
-23.43%+17.45%-40.88
08/21/15 SCTY Outperform 5Y $44.86 $22.05
( -1.39%)
-50.85%+7.50%-58.34 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
08/21/15 QCOM Outperform 5Y $57.60 $62.97
( +0.53%)
+9.32%+7.68%+1.64 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
08/17/15 CRR Outperform 5Y $28.66 $13.03
( -0.91%)
-54.54%+3.46%-58.00 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
08/05/15 INVN Outperform 5Y $11.83 $7.26
( -1.63%)
-38.63%+3.14%-41.77
07/27/15 PNR Outperform 5Y $57.62 $63.70
( -0.44%)
+10.56%+5.01%+5.55 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/27/15 UNFI Outperform 5Y $45.72 $47.54
( -0.11%)
+3.98%+5.05%-1.07 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/08/15 GNRC Outperform 5Y $35.85 $37.15
( -1.25%)
+3.63%+5.81%-2.19 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/01/15 ENPH Outperform 5Y $7.58 $1.81
( -1.63%)
-76.12%+4.60%-80.72 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/18/15 CF Outperform 5Y $61.91 $23.98
( -1.03%)
-61.27%+2.73%-64.00 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/07/15 JOY Outperform 5Y $42.01 $27.33
( -0.55%)
-34.95%+7.52%-42.47 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/15/14 IBM Outperform 5Y $146.68 $158.32
( -0.20%)
+7.94%+7.36%+0.58 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/02/14 FCX Outperform 5Y $25.11 $10.89
( -1.80%)
-56.63%+5.53%-62.17 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/28/14 STO Outperform 5Y $17.70 $15.96
( -0.37%)
-9.82%+4.77%-14.59 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/04/14 SYNT Outperform 5Y $42.76 $46.22
( -0.69%)
+8.08%+7.83%+0.25 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/28/14 LF Outperform 5Y $5.45 $1.00
( 0%)
-81.70%+9.94%-91.64 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/13/14 EMN Outperform 5Y $68.74 $67.25
( -0.72%)
-2.17%+15.84%-18.01 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/07/14 FMSA Outperform 5Y $15.83 $7.36
( -1.87%)
-53.51%+11.27%-64.78 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
09/04/14 MTG Outperform 5Y $8.23 $8.04
( +0.75%)
-2.31%+8.19%-10.50
09/04/14 MGIC Outperform 5Y $7.35 $7.88
( -0.13%)
+7.15%+8.19%-1.04 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
08/07/14 DXPE Outperform 5Y $76.02 $28.85
( -0.55%)
-62.05%+12.62%-74.67 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/17/14 MBI Outperform 5Y $9.43 $7.92
( -0.75%)
-16.01%+10.10%-26.12
07/15/14 SSEIQ Outperform 5Y $25.17 $0.11
( 0%)
-99.56%+10.20%-109.76 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/08/14 CSD Outperform 5Y $43.79 $42.18
( -0.09%)
-3.67%+10.22%-13.89 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/30/14 BBSI Outperform 5Y $48.73 $47.62
( -1.22%)
-2.28%+16.02%-18.30 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/28/14 IPO Underperform 5Y $21.99 $20.73
( +0.14%)
-5.73%+17.39%+23.12 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/12/11 03/10/14 VLO Outperform 5Y $21.32 $55.28
( +0.47%)
+159.27%+68.99%+90.27 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/13/14 SODA Outperform 5Y $37.50 $28.82
( +0.17%)
-23.15%+19.51%-42.66 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/15/13 JRJC Underperform 5Y $2.80 $4.26
( +0.24%)
+52.14%+20.79%-31.36 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
09/18/08 11/05/13 BAC Outperform 5Y $25.10 $15.79
( +1.67%)
-37.09%+89.41%-126.49 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/10/08 11/05/13 STKL Outperform 5Y $2.96 $6.19
( -0.96%)
+109.12%+142.52%-33.40 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/28/08 11/05/13 GRMN Outperform 5Y $31.84 $50.20
( -0.63%)
+57.66%+61.17%-3.51 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
09/30/13 NFLX Underperform 1Y $43.96 $97.58
( +0.27%)
+121.97%+29.74%-92.23 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/31/13 CST Outperform 5Y $30.56 $47.54
( -0.29%)
+55.55%+31.40%+24.15 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/31/13 WWAV Outperform 5Y $17.90 $55.24
( +0.02%)
+208.60%+31.40%+177.21 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/23/13 TSL Underperform 5Y $3.97 $10.54
( +0.19%)
+165.49%+38.45%-127.05
04/22/13 AAPL Outperform 5Y $53.01 $106.94
( -0.59%)
+101.73%+39.14%+62.60 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/18/13 TZOO Outperform 5Y $24.81 $12.36
( -0.96%)
-50.18%+39.85%-90.03
03/18/13 FSLR Outperform 5Y $26.91 $37.53
( +1.32%)
+39.46%+40.30%-0.84 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/04/12 AIG Outperform 5Y $33.20 $59.02
( +0.14%)
+77.78%+49.20%+28.58
07/17/07 08/24/12 CHK Outperform 5Y $30.20 $6.40
( +1.11%)
-78.81%+47.63%-126.44
09/14/07 08/24/12 PLD Outperform 5Y $41.92 $52.56
( -1.41%)
+25.38%+54.59%-29.21 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/17/07 08/24/12 TIVO Outperform 5Y $5.99 $10.86
( -0.82%)
+81.30%+47.63%+33.67 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/23/12 GLW Outperform 5Y $10.83 $22.67
( -0.04%)
+109.26%+61.83%+47.43 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/02/12 RBCAA Outperform 5Y $19.47 $31.71
( -0.09%)
+62.87%+55.14%+7.73 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/09/12 GRC Outperform 5Y $21.08 $27.38
( -0.73%)
+29.88%+58.26%-28.38 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
09/12/11 MYTAY Outperform 5Y $8.99 $7.70
( -0.82%)
-14.36%+87.24%-101.60 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/23/11 INFN Outperform 5Y $6.89 $8.63
( +0.23%)
+25.32%+64.73%-39.41 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
02/14/11 SNV Outperform 5Y $18.41 $32.65
( +1.11%)
+77.35%+63.34%+14.01
11/19/10 GM Outperform 5Y $30.88 $31.53
( -0.03%)
+2.11%+81.23%-79.12 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/02/10 RIG Outperform 5Y $39.49 $10.09
( +0.20%)
-74.45%+101.03%-175.47 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/04/10 WAFD Outperform 5Y $17.22 $26.05
( -0.12%)
+51.25%+85.15%-33.90 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies

Results 1 - 63 of 63  

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