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TMFPencils's rating is 99.81.

  • Score: 12070.23 (100th percentile)
  • Accuracy: 70.51% (99th percentile)

A player's rating indicates his percentile rank in CAPS. TMFPencils is outperforming 99.81% of all CAPS players. A player's score is the total percentage return of all his picks subtracting out the S&P. A player's accuracy is how often that player has made correct predictions.

To calculate a player's rating, we take 2/3 of his score percentile and 1/3 of his accuracy percentile. For further information, read the Player Ratings section of the Help page.

Average Pick Score is a player's total score divided by the total number of picks (active and closed). It represents the player's average return after subtracting out the market's performance.

Average Pick Rating is the average stock rating of a player's total picks. Underperform picks are flip-flopped, so a underperform call on a one-star stock is treated like an outperform call on a five-star stock. This rating reflects how closely your picks are aligned with CAPS ratings.

Ratings last updated at 5:59 PM 8/21/2014.

TMFPencils lost to the market on Thursday

Player Rating CAPS Rating

99.81

Rank: 141 out of 75000
Score: 12,070.23 (-38.73)
Accuracy: 70.51%
Average Pick Score: +31.27
Average Pick Rating:
All-Time Best: NFLX +1571.39
All-Time Worst: HKTV -660.27

Score Comparison vs. TMFPencils

Player History

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TMFPencils's Latest Blog Post

Recs

2

Taking a look at zulily (ZU)

August 19, 2014 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: AMZN , TJX , ZU

zulily, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZU) 
Sector: Consumer Cyclical 

Business in One Sentence 
zulily is an online retailer offering customers a fresh selection of new product styles and deals launched each day. 

Value Proposition 
zulily launches a fresh sales event from different vendors every morning which lasts for 72 hours, with deals typically more than 50% off the suggested manufacturer’s price. Most of the products sold through zulily come from emerging brands and smaller boutique vendors -- providing an opportunity for these smaller brands to gain exposure by offering great deals for a short amount of time to a large consumer audience. 

Competitive Strategy and Advantage 
zulily sees several strategic areas to expand the business. First, testing new marketing channels and campaigns to attract and retain new email subscribers and convert existing email subscribers into customers. zulily also wants to boost customer loyalty and repeat purchases, which is currently pursued by offering compelling deals in a fun format each day. The company aims to add new vendors with unique merchandise to its lineup of vendors, further boosting the value proposition to zulily’s base of customers. In addition, zulily continues to invest in its mobile platform as well as international expansion outside of North America. 

zulily’s competitive edge comes from its niche focus, targeting moms who are purchasing products for their children, themselves, and their homes. By building its network of vendors, zulily is offering deals that cannot be found elsewhere. zulily itself has minimal inventory -- the company doesn’t usually purchase inventory from vendors until customer orders are placed -- and can experiment with a wide array of products and vendors on a regular basis. Because particular deals on zulily are short-lived, there is a sense of urgency for customers to take quick advantage of a deal that is appealing to them on zulily (similar to the “treasure hunt” at TJX stores). 

Other Business Details 
** Children’s apparel is zulily’s largest product category, making up 43% of total sales in 2013 (down from 55% in 2012). 

** In addition to children’s apparel, zulily’s other current product categories are women’s apparel, children’s merchandise, and “other merchandise.” 

** The average value of an order placed on zulily during 2013 was $54.75. 

** 83% of sales in 2013 came from repeat customers. 

** In the 4Q 2013, roughly 45% of North American orders were placed from a mobile device (up from 31% in 4Q 2012).

** Cofounders Mark Vadon and Darrell Cavens together own 24.3% of all shares outstanding. 

Risks
** zulily typically doesn’t have long-term agreements or exclusive arrangements with its vendors, but its business model depends on having a substantial number of vendors, new products, and deals. 

** eCommerce is obviously a very competitive field, and zulily is a much smaller player compared to behemoths like Amazon.com

** zulily has significantly slower shipping/delivery times and higher shipping costs for consumers as compared to other eCommerce players. 

Big Few 
1. Are there any international eCommerce players with a similar business model to zulily? 

2. What is the rough size of the children’s/women’s apparel market? Is zulily planning to branch out into other product categories, or focus on these niche markets? 

3. zulily cofounders Mark Vadon and Darrell Cavens came from Blue Nile (which Vadon cofounded). What is their end game with zulily, and do they have a longer-term focus with zulily than they had with Blue Nile? 

Questions and input always welcome! Any zulily shoppers here? 

David K  [more]

TMFPencils's Stock Picks

Results 1 - 75 of 153 :   1 2 3 Next »

picks per page. CHANGE Expand All Pitches

Top
Pick
Start
Date
TickerCAPS RatingCallTime FrameStart PriceToday (Change)Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
ScorePitch
07/31/14 AWAY Outperform 3Y $35.32 $32.99
( +0.06%)
-6.60%+1.97%-8.57 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/25/14 CYNK Underperform 5Y $3.20 $0.35
( +16.67%)
-89.06%+0.71%+89.77 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/16/07 06/16/14 HAIN Outperform 5Y $29.05 $95.83
( -0.70%)
+229.88%+39.86%+190.02 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/14/06 06/16/14 WFM Outperform 5Y $26.92 $37.92
( -0.71%)
+40.85%+72.36%-31.51 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/13/14 CVT Outperform 5Y $26.10 $25.38
( -2.23%)
-2.76%+2.87%-5.63 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/10/14 DVA Outperform 5Y $71.47 $73.83
( +0.15%)
+3.30%+2.11%+1.19 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/05/14 MKTX Outperform 5Y $51.12 $57.76
( -0.64%)
+12.98%+3.25%+9.73 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/03/14 KORS Outperform 5Y $93.98 $81.73
( -1.36%)
-13.04%+3.66%-16.70 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/23/14 SALE Outperform 5Y $24.50 $18.24
( +1.84%)
-25.55%+5.14%-30.69 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/19/14 WETF Outperform 5Y $9.75 $11.00
( +2.33%)
+12.82%+6.29%+6.53 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/14 UA Outperform 5Y $47.88 $69.44
( -1.59%)
+45.03%+5.23%+39.80 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/12/14 UBNT Outperform 3Y $31.27 $45.25
( -0.75%)
+44.71%+5.69%+39.02 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/27/14 FB Outperform 5Y $60.96 $74.57
( -0.32%)
+22.33%+8.04%+14.29 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/12/14 Z Outperform 5Y $80.38 $145.04
( +2.64%)
+80.45%+7.11%+73.33 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/12/14 LNKD Outperform 5Y $199.68 $219.20
( +0.59%)
+9.78%+7.11%+2.66 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
02/26/14 SHLO Outperform 5Y $19.43 $16.81
( -0.47%)
-13.48%+8.02%-21.50 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
02/18/14 PRLB Outperform 5Y $82.14 $76.05
( -1.66%)
-7.41%+8.32%-15.74
02/07/14 AMZN Outperform 5Y $352.86 $332.91
( -0.85%)
-5.65%+12.09%-17.74
02/06/14 AFOP Outperform 3Y $12.05 $14.61
( +2.53%)
+21.24%+12.95%+8.29 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/22/14 NGVC Outperform 5Y $41.83 $18.29
( -0.71%)
-56.27%+8.26%-64.53 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/21/14 STMP Outperform 5Y $38.39 $33.02
( +1.04%)
-13.99%+8.01%-22.00 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/21/14 OLED Outperform 5Y $33.65 $34.85
( +4.09%)
+3.57%+8.86%-5.28 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/17/14 TSLA Outperform 5Y $169.38 $254.34
( -0.54%)
+50.15%+8.34%+41.82 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/16/14 ISRG Outperform 5Y $416.43 $471.89
( +0.94%)
+13.32%+8.22%+5.09
01/15/14 SSYS Outperform 5Y $120.10 $111.10
( +0.44%)
-7.49%+8.38%-15.87
12/26/13 PII Outperform 5Y $142.05 $148.81
( -0.40%)
+4.76%+8.81%-4.05 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 INVN Outperform 5Y $17.33 $25.84
( +2.05%)
+49.11%+9.08%+40.03 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 AMBA Outperform 5Y $28.49 $30.98
( -0.90%)
+8.74%+9.08%-0.33 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 SCTY Outperform 5Y $56.35 $69.90
( -0.82%)
+24.05%+9.15%+14.90 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/23/13 SODA Outperform 5Y $52.44 $33.61
( -2.10%)
-35.91%+9.33%-45.24 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/23/13 ULTA Outperform 5Y $95.17 $96.00
( -1.53%)
+0.87%+9.37%-8.50 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/02/13 DPZ Outperform 5Y $68.20 $74.75
( +0.12%)
+9.60%+10.13%-0.53 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/02/13 MELI Outperform NS $110.17 $114.23
( +0.85%)
+3.69%+10.17%-6.48
11/19/13 FF Outperform NS $16.83 $13.87
( +1.39%)
-17.60%+11.12%-28.72
11/19/13 LNN Outperform NS $79.76 $77.72
( +0.18%)
-2.56%+11.12%-13.68
11/05/13 BOFI Outperform 5Y $62.01 $78.46
( +0.58%)
+26.53%+13.26%+13.27
11/05/13 CPSI Outperform 5Y $57.95 $61.06
( -0.21%)
+5.36%+13.26%-7.90
11/04/13 CECE Outperform 5Y $17.73 $14.05
( +1.89%)
-20.77%+12.92%-33.69 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/29/13 DORM Outperform 5Y $48.90 $44.13
( -0.11%)
-9.75%+12.76%-22.52 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/25/13 DDD Outperform 5Y $57.98 $49.32
( +0.20%)
-14.94%+13.67%-28.60 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/25/13 AAPL Outperform 5Y $74.23 $100.58
( +0.01%)
+35.50%+13.67%+21.83
10/24/13 NATH Outperform 5Y $51.50 $55.11
( +1.01%)
+7.01%+14.05%-7.04
10/23/13 LGF Outperform 5Y $36.44 $32.64
( +0.03%)
-10.42%+14.12%-24.54 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
09/04/13 BRK-B Outperform 5Y $112.07 $136.81
( +1.41%)
+22.08%+20.32%+1.76
01/25/13 SPB Outperform 5Y $48.43 $86.12
( -0.14%)
+77.82%+33.08%+44.74
01/25/13 JBSS Outperform 5Y $18.50 $29.63
( +0.20%)
+60.17%+33.08%+27.09
01/25/13 YHOO Outperform 5Y $20.32 $37.64
( +0.37%)
+85.24%+33.33%+51.91
01/22/13 CL Outperform 5Y $52.39 $64.81
( +0.22%)
+23.70%+34.02%-10.32
01/22/13 COST Outperform 5Y $99.75 $121.62
( +0.59%)
+21.92%+34.02%-12.10
01/22/13 FDP Outperform 5Y $25.43 $30.87
( -0.61%)
+21.40%+34.50%-13.10
07/26/10 IMAX Outperform NS $14.05 $26.93
( -0.30%)
+91.67%+80.38%+11.29 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/28/08 ARII Outperform 5Y $19.69 $79.72
( +0.68%)
+304.97%+47.76%+257.21 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/17/08 PRPX Outperform 5Y $11.34 $11.79
( 0%)
+3.93%+51.75%-47.82 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/14/08 SNHY Outperform 5Y $12.01 $41.32
( +2.23%)
+244.03%+47.29%+196.73 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/03/08 CCJ Outperform 5Y $37.98 $19.79
( -3.75%)
-47.89%+43.48%-91.36 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/23/07 LNDC Outperform 5Y $11.80 $12.81
( +4.66%)
+8.56%+46.09%-37.53
11/13/07 CRESY Outperform 5Y $18.74 $12.19
( +0.41%)
-34.96%+43.78%-78.75
11/12/07 ARDNA Outperform 5Y $103.44 $126.38
( 0%)
+22.17%+43.94%-21.76 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/12/07 MRT Outperform 5Y $12.79 $6.89
( 0%)
-46.13%+43.94%-90.07
11/12/07 ZUMZ Outperform 5Y $26.00 $31.95
( +3.10%)
+22.88%+43.94%-21.05
10/29/07 FCX Outperform 5Y $47.76 $36.68
( -0.81%)
-23.20%+35.79%-58.99
10/22/07 AKO-A Outperform 5Y $16.73 $17.05
( 0%)
+1.89%+40.41%-38.52
09/28/07 TSCO Outperform 5Y $11.01 $63.53
( +0.44%)
+477.02%+36.75%+440.27
09/24/07 FLO Outperform 5Y $8.29 $19.18
( -1.13%)
+131.38%+37.14%+94.25
08/03/07 JMBA Outperform NS $37.55 $14.45
( +1.69%)
-61.52%+42.59%-104.10
07/25/07 LOOP Outperform 5Y $22.97 $19.17
( 0%)
-16.54%+38.51%-55.06 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/21/07 NBFAQ Underperform 5Y $2.59 $0.00
( 0%)
-99.98%+39.00%+138.98
06/15/07 AEO Outperform 5Y $19.16 $13.32
( +2.62%)
-30.48%+37.16%-67.64
06/13/07 BLOBQ Underperform 5Y $4.00 $0.04
( 0%)
-99.00%+39.82%+138.82
05/31/07 GWR Outperform 5Y $32.40 $98.39
( +0.15%)
+203.67%+37.50%+166.18
05/16/07 WLP Outperform NS $79.61 $113.12
( +0.04%)
+42.10%+39.74%+2.36
05/16/07 NSC Outperform 5Y $47.18 $105.18
( -1.11%)
+122.95%+39.71%+83.24
05/14/07 DLIA Outperform 5Y $8.45 $0.42
( +2.41%)
-95.03%+39.91%-134.94 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 CWST Underperform NS $9.34 $4.87
( +0.83%)
-47.86%+39.74%+87.60 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 CBOU Underperform 5Y $6.87 $15.99
( 0%)
+132.68%+39.92%-92.75 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies

Results 1 - 75 of 153 :   1 2 3 Next »

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