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TMFPencils's rating is 99.82.

  • Score: 11316.90 (100th percentile)
  • Accuracy: 71.07% (99th percentile)

A player's rating indicates his percentile rank in CAPS. TMFPencils is outperforming 99.82% of all CAPS players. A player's score is the total percentage return of all his picks subtracting out the S&P. A player's accuracy is how often that player has made correct predictions.

To calculate a player's rating, we take 2/3 of his score percentile and 1/3 of his accuracy percentile. For further information, read the Player Ratings section of the Help page.

Average Pick Score is a player's total score divided by the total number of picks (active and closed). It represents the player's average return after subtracting out the market's performance.

Average Pick Rating is the average stock rating of a player's total picks. Underperform picks are flip-flopped, so a underperform call on a one-star stock is treated like an outperform call on a five-star stock. This rating reflects how closely your picks are aligned with CAPS ratings.

Ratings last updated at 3:58 PM 4/24/2014.

TMFPencils is losing to the market today

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99.82

Rank: 134 out of 74859
Score: 11,316.90 (-72.51)
Accuracy: 71.07%
Average Pick Score: +30.10
Average Pick Rating:
All-Time Best: NFLX +1108.17
All-Time Worst: HKTV -498.06

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TMFPencils's Latest Blog Post

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2

Chipotle's Long-Term Prospects

April 24, 2014 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CMG

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. Today is my final day of classes at Berea College, with finals week coming up next week. I'm doing my best to enjoy these final college experiences and, you know, maybe complete a few assignments in the meantime... 

Still, here is a recent article I wrote after Chipotle's latest earnings report. I probably won't be very active the next week or so, but I imagine you'll be seeing more of me after May 4. :-) 

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Long-Term Prospects Remain Stronghttp://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/23/chipotle-me...

Last Thursday, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) reported results for the first quarter of 2014. The market ended up pushing shares down 5.94% to $519.61, possibly due to fears that the company's planned price increases may deter customers. For long-term investors, however, the company's prospects are as bright as ever. 

Chipotle can handle price increases

Chipotle saw sales increase 24.4% year over year to $904.2 million in the first quarter, but net income only increased 8.5% to $83.07. Margins were pressured by rising commodity prices -- particularly with beef, avocados, and cheese -- and pushed management to announce Chipotle's first system-wide price increase across the U.S. since 2011. Management anticipates these price increases to be rolled out by the third quarter of this year. 

While investors should keep a close watch on how these price increases impact customer visits and overall sales, I think it is unlikely that low single-to-mid digit percentage increase in prices will significantly impact customers. As a conscious capitalism business focused on its Food With Integrity mission, Chipotle has built a loyal (and growing) customer base. 

This quarter, for instance, comparable restaurant sales increased an astounding 13.4%, and average restaurant sales hit a record of $2.23 million per restaurant. Chipotle offers an experience that few (if any) national restaurant chains have been able to match, and the numbers prove it.

"Ultimately," as founder and co-CEO Steve Ells explains, "it's our belief that the more people know about their food and how it was raised and where it comes from, the more likely they will be to eat at Chipotle." Given Chipotle's financial performance, it is hard to argue with that statement. 

Focus on the cash flow 

Shortsighted investors are focusing on the short-term impact that rising commodity prices are having on Chipotle's bottom line. Many investors, however, are missing a key statistic that demonstrates just how impressive Chipotle's business is: free cash flow

In the first quarter, Chipotle's free cash flow production increased 49.34% to $132.55 million. This cash flow performance allows Chipotle to open more than 40 new restaurants each quarter without adding any debt to the balance sheet. In fact, Chipotle now carries $411.59 million of cash with no debt. 

Long-term investors should focus on Chipotle's free cash flow performance going forward. Few restaurants, let alone businesses, come close to achieving the continued excellence of cash flow production demonstrated by Chipotle. In terms of cash flow production, Chipotle is as strong as it's ever been, and patient long-term investors should take notice. 

ShopHouse and Pizzeria Locale concepts off to a good start

We didn't learn much more about Pizzeria Locale or ShopHouse in this quarter's press release or conference call. However, Steve Ells did disclose that the volumes of Pizzeria Locale and ShopHouse are "behaving similarly in general to how we saw Chipotle going into early markets back when Chipotle was kind of unknown".

When it comes to Pizzeria Locale and ShopHouse, Ells explains they are "seeing patterns that are very similar to what we saw with Chipotle in the early days, and we find that to be very encouraging." Considering that Pizzeria Locale and ShopHouse are already opening new locations at a faster pace than Chipotle in its early days, long-term investors have reason to be optimistic that these new concepts can complement Chipotle's growth in the coming years and decades.

Foolish final thoughts

The market presently values Chipotle at $16.15 billion with a P/E ratio of 48.74. While this doesn't appear to be a bargain, I think this is a valuation that Chipotle can justify and grow into. Within the past several years, I made the foolish (small f) decision to sell shares of Chipotle based solely on price movements. Big mistake. Chipotle's long-term prospects are as bright as ever and will likely command a premium valuation for quite some time. 

With Chipotle we have a proven values-driven management team with an unprecedented ability to generate cash flow. Should the market continue to discount the strength of Chipotle's business and push shares downward, I will strongly consider adding to my existing position. Patient long-term investors shouldn't go anywhere, because Chipotle's growth is far from over. 

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/23/chipotle-me...

David K  [more]

TMFPencils's Stock Picks

Results 1 - 75 of 146 :   1 2 Next »

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Pick
Start
Date
TickerCAPS RatingCallTime FrameStart PriceToday (Change)Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
ScorePitch
03/27/14 FB Outperform 5Y $60.96 $60.88
( -0.78%)
+0.69%+1.74%-1.05 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/12/14 LNKD Outperform 5Y $199.68 $171.39
( -2.46%)
-14.29%+0.87%-15.16 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/12/14 Z Outperform 5Y $80.38 $103.92
( +1.74%)
+28.53%+0.87%+27.66 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
02/26/14 SHLO Outperform 5Y $19.43 $20.36
( -0.05%)
+4.89%+1.72%+3.17 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
02/18/14 PRLB Outperform 5Y $82.14 $61.31
( -1.53%)
-25.18%+2.01%-27.19
02/07/14 AMZN Outperform 5Y $352.86 $335.57
( +3.39%)
-4.83%+5.55%-10.38
02/06/14 AFOP Outperform 3Y $12.05 $18.06
( -4.44%)
+48.46%+6.37%+42.10 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/22/14 NGVC Outperform 5Y $41.83 $36.42
( -0.65%)
-12.64%+1.95%-14.58 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/21/14 STMP Outperform 5Y $38.39 $34.49
( +0.38%)
-10.45%+1.72%-12.16 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/21/14 OLED Outperform 5Y $33.65 $28.96
( -1.73%)
-13.99%+2.51%-16.50 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/17/14 TSLA Outperform 5Y $169.38 $207.53
( -0.22%)
+22.71%+2.02%+20.69 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/16/14 ISRG Outperform 5Y $416.43 $372.94
( -0.26%)
-10.50%+1.91%-12.42
01/15/14 SSYS Outperform 5Y $120.10 $103.02
( +0.61%)
-14.10%+2.06%-16.16
12/26/13 PII Outperform 5Y $142.56 $137.68
( -1.35%)
-3.37%+2.47%-5.84 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 INVN Outperform 5Y $17.33 $21.91
( -0.45%)
+26.21%+2.72%+23.49 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 AMBA Outperform 5Y $28.49 $27.64
( -0.58%)
-2.94%+2.72%-5.66 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 SCTY Outperform 5Y $56.35 $58.21
( -1.71%)
+3.02%+2.78%+0.23 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/23/13 SODA Outperform 5Y $52.44 $42.43
( -5.20%)
-19.64%+2.96%-22.60 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/23/13 ULTA Outperform 5Y $95.17 $89.78
( +1.77%)
-5.75%+2.99%-8.74 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/02/13 DPZ Outperform 5Y $68.43 $75.00
( -0.35%)
+9.62%+3.71%+5.91 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/02/13 MELI Outperform NS $110.37 $89.28
( +3.14%)
-19.21%+3.74%-22.95
11/19/13 FF Outperform NS $16.95 $20.53
( -0.29%)
+21.48%+4.64%+16.84
11/19/13 LNN Outperform NS $80.28 $90.82
( +2.94%)
+12.86%+4.64%+8.23
11/05/13 BOFI Outperform 5Y $62.01 $83.55
( -1.71%)
+34.62%+6.66%+27.96
11/05/13 CPSI Outperform 5Y $58.99 $60.32
( -3.26%)
+2.49%+6.66%-4.17
11/04/13 CECE Outperform 5Y $17.80 $16.32
( -0.91%)
-8.33%+6.34%-14.67 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/29/13 DORM Outperform 5Y $48.90 $57.78
( +0.08%)
+18.42%+6.19%+12.23 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/25/13 DDD Outperform 5Y $57.98 $51.42
( +1.86%)
-11.45%+7.04%-18.49 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/25/13 AAPL Outperform 5Y $525.10 $569.58
( +8.54%)
+8.49%+7.04%+1.45
10/24/13 NATH Outperform 5Y $51.50 $49.50
( +0.08%)
-3.88%+7.40%-11.29
10/23/13 LGF Outperform 5Y $36.50 $26.72
( +0.64%)
-26.81%+7.47%-34.28 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
09/04/13 BRK-B Outperform 5Y $112.07 $126.93
( -0.21%)
+13.27%+13.30%-0.04
01/25/13 JBSS Outperform 5Y $18.50 $23.25
( -0.09%)
+25.95%+25.32%+0.63
01/25/13 SPB Outperform 5Y $48.80 $77.90
( +0.33%)
+59.64%+25.32%+34.32
01/25/13 YHOO Outperform 5Y $20.32 $35.25
( -0.54%)
+73.43%+25.55%+47.87
01/25/13 SNAK Outperform 5Y $7.07 $12.66
( -0.78%)
+79.07%+25.52%+53.54
01/22/13 CL Outperform 5Y $52.67 $66.32
( +0.68%)
+25.89%+26.21%-0.32
01/22/13 COST Outperform 5Y $100.36 $114.92
( +0.11%)
+14.60%+26.21%-11.61
01/22/13 FDP Outperform 5Y $25.64 $26.59
( +0.26%)
+3.65%+26.66%-23.00
07/26/10 IMAX Outperform NS $14.05 $27.00
( -4.36%)
+91.81%+69.86%+21.95 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/28/08 ARII Outperform 5Y $19.81 $68.44
( +3.21%)
+246.35%+39.15%+207.20 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/17/08 PRPX Outperform 5Y $11.34 $11.79
( 0%)
+3.93%+42.90%-38.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/14/08 SNHY Outperform 5Y $12.04 $40.35
( -0.32%)
+235.54%+38.71%+196.83 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/03/08 CCJ Outperform 5Y $38.16 $22.90
( -0.43%)
-40.11%+35.11%-75.22 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/23/07 LNDC Outperform 5Y $11.80 $12.17
( +0.08%)
+3.14%+37.57%-34.44
11/13/07 CRESY Outperform 5Y $18.74 $11.18
( +1.36%)
-40.35%+35.40%-75.75
11/12/07 ARDNA Outperform 5Y $103.44 $126.38
( 0%)
+22.17%+35.55%-13.37 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/12/07 MRT Outperform 5Y $12.79 $6.89
( 0%)
-46.13%+35.55%-81.68
11/12/07 ZUMZ Outperform 5Y $26.00 $24.21
( +0.17%)
-6.88%+35.55%-42.43
10/29/07 FCX Outperform 5Y $48.15 $33.93
( +1.28%)
-29.28%+27.87%-57.15
10/22/07 AKO-A Outperform 5Y $16.91 $19.38
( -0.77%)
+14.57%+32.22%-17.65
10/01/07 DAVE Outperform 5Y $16.31 $25.35
( +5.19%)
+54.51%+28.98%+25.53
09/28/07 TSCO Outperform 5Y $11.07 $66.60
( -1.11%)
+502.74%+28.78%+473.96
09/24/07 FLO Outperform 5Y $8.34 $20.41
( -0.63%)
+144.43%+29.14%+115.29
08/03/07 JMBA Outperform NS $37.55 $11.48
( -0.99%)
-69.43%+34.27%-103.70
07/25/07 LOOP Outperform 5Y $22.97 $19.17
( 0%)
-16.54%+30.44%-46.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/21/07 NBFAQ Underperform 5Y $2.59 $0.00
( 0%)
-100.00%+30.90%+130.89
06/15/07 AEO Outperform 5Y $19.37 $11.33
( +2.07%)
-41.56%+29.17%-70.73
06/13/07 BLOBQ Underperform 5Y $4.00 $0.04
( 0%)
-99.00%+31.67%+130.67
05/31/07 GWR Outperform 5Y $32.40 $97.38
( -0.02%)
+200.59%+29.48%+171.11
05/16/07 WLP Outperform NS $79.93 $96.54
( +1.95%)
+20.67%+31.59%-10.92
05/16/07 NSC Outperform 5Y $47.71 $95.11
( +0.11%)
+99.30%+31.57%+67.73
05/16/07 HAIN Outperform 5Y $29.05 $84.64
( -2.36%)
+191.84%+31.71%+160.14 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 DLIA Outperform 5Y $8.45 $0.85
( +5.00%)
-89.94%+31.76%-121.70 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 CWST Underperform NS $9.34 $5.00
( -0.99%)
-46.25%+31.59%+77.84 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 CBOU Underperform 5Y $6.87 $15.99
( 0%)
+132.68%+31.77%-100.91 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 DUNR Underperform 5Y $231.00 $0.87
( -11.22%)
-99.62%+31.66%+131.28 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 PGICQ Underperform 5Y $4.55 $0.00
( 0%)
-99.96%+31.66%+131.63 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 DF Outperform 5Y $29.86 $15.80
( -0.38%)
-47.08%+31.66%-78.74
05/11/07 FZN Outperform 5Y $7.74 $1.19
( 0%)
-84.63%+32.63%-117.26 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/02/07 CDE Outperform 5Y $41.80 $8.59
( -0.23%)
-79.47%+39.71%-119.19
03/29/07 E Outperform 5Y $45.38 $51.68
( +0.54%)
+13.81%+39.69%-25.88
03/27/07 MRH Outperform 3Y $15.19 $31.05
( -0.51%)
+104.48%+39.08%+65.40
03/26/07 QSII Outperform 5Y $17.48 $14.83
( -0.34%)
-14.98%+38.41%-53.39
03/26/07 ACAS Outperform 5Y $36.60 $14.78
( -0.03%)
-59.64%+38.41%-98.05

Results 1 - 75 of 146 :   1 2 Next »

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