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TMFPencils's rating is 99.81.

  • Score: 11636.78 (100th percentile)
  • Accuracy: 70.51% (99th percentile)

A player's rating indicates his percentile rank in CAPS. TMFPencils is outperforming 99.81% of all CAPS players. A player's score is the total percentage return of all his picks subtracting out the S&P. A player's accuracy is how often that player has made correct predictions.

To calculate a player's rating, we take 2/3 of his score percentile and 1/3 of his accuracy percentile. For further information, read the Player Ratings section of the Help page.

Average Pick Score is a player's total score divided by the total number of picks (active and closed). It represents the player's average return after subtracting out the market's performance.

Average Pick Rating is the average stock rating of a player's total picks. Underperform picks are flip-flopped, so a underperform call on a one-star stock is treated like an outperform call on a five-star stock. This rating reflects how closely your picks are aligned with CAPS ratings.

Ratings last updated at 5:08 PM 7/31/2014.

TMFPencils is losing to the market today

Player Rating CAPS Rating

99.81

Rank: 144 out of 74990
Score: 11,636.78 (-113.70)
Accuracy: 70.51%
Average Pick Score: +30.15
Average Pick Rating:
All-Time Best: NFLX +1395.12
All-Time Worst: HKTV -607.33

Score Comparison vs. TMFPencils

Player History

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TMFPencils's Latest Blog Post

Recs

0

Why I Rated HomeAway (AWAY) Outperform

July 31, 2014 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: AWAY

HomeAway -- a leading online marketplace of vacation rentals worldwide -- is an interesting business that, at first glance, looks pricey with a P/S of 8.3 and a trailing P/E of 188. On a P/FCF basis, however, HomeAway looks much more reasonable trading at a multiple just over 30. Here are a few other factors that give me optimism about the company over the next several years: 

** As of the most recent quarter, sales and adjusted EBITDA are expanding at more than 30% year-over-year. 

** The company just crossed 1 million paid listings on its vacation rentals platform, of which 72% were subscription listings paid in advance by property owners. Currently the company’s renewal rate is hovering between 72%-73%. 

** Over the past four quarters HomeAway’s core business produced $109 million in free cash flow, providing ample fuel to strengthen the company’s balance sheet, make acquisitions, and continue to invest in the business for future growth. 

** The company has $792.5 million in cash and short-term investments and $307.4 million in long-term debt, making for a healthy net cash position of $485.1 million. 

** Superb Glassdoor ratings and management. Cofounder and CEO Brian Sharples receives a stellar 94% employee approval rating, with employees rating the company 4.1/5 as a whole. 79% of employees would recommend the company to a friend. Fellow HomeAway cofounder Carl Shepherd remains on board as chief strategy & development officer. 

** Growth trajectory in the coming years. HomeAway just created a chief marketing position which will be staffed by Mariano Dima, who brings years of experience from Visa Europe, PepsiCo Latin America, Levi Strauss, and Vodafone. HomeAway has spent the past several years investing in and building its technology and platform, and now the company is placing its efforts behind a new marketing push starting in the remaining months of 2014. This should help drive growth over the next several years. 

** Paid listings and visits to HomeAway’s websites continue to grow very quickly. In the most recent quarter (2Q 2014), paid listings increased 34.2% year-over-year while HomeAway’s websites saw a 14.2% year-over-year increase in visits to 229.5 million during the quarter. 

Brian Sharples explains that HomeAway’s vision is "to make booking a vacation rental as easy as booking a hotel." Given the company’s success in building a leadership position in the market, coupled with a new marketing strategy that should serve as fuel to propel growth in the coming years, I think we will see HomeAway outperform the market over the next 3-5 years. Visionary and dedicated leadership, a market-leading business, vibrant employee culture, and strong free cash flow production go a long way in my book. 

Here are more of my thoughts on HomeAway's 2Q 2014 earnings report and the outlook of the company: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/07/29/homeaway-co...

David K  [more]

TMFPencils's Stock Picks

Results 1 - 75 of 153 :   1 2 3 Next »

picks per page. CHANGE Expand All Pitches

Top
Pick
Start
Date
TickerCAPS RatingCallTime FrameStart PriceToday (Change)Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
ScorePitch
07/31/14 AWAY Outperform 3Y $35.32 $34.72
( -2.44%)
-1.70%-1.30%-0.40 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/25/14 CYNK Underperform 5Y $3.20 $0.45
( -30.77%)
-85.94%-2.52%+83.41 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/16/07 06/16/14 HAIN Outperform 5Y $29.05 $85.50
( -0.98%)
+194.32%+35.37%+158.95 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
07/14/06 06/16/14 WFM Outperform 5Y $26.92 $38.23
( -2.25%)
+42.01%+66.82%-24.82 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/13/14 CVT Outperform 5Y $26.10 $27.31
( -3.74%)
+4.64%-0.43%+5.07 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/10/14 DVA Outperform 5Y $71.47 $70.44
( -1.23%)
-1.44%-1.17%-0.27 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/05/14 MKTX Outperform 5Y $51.27 $56.23
( -1.26%)
+9.67%-0.06%+9.74 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/03/14 KORS Outperform 5Y $93.98 $81.48
( -0.96%)
-13.30%+0.33%-13.64 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/23/14 SALE Outperform 5Y $24.50 $24.46
( -0.85%)
-0.16%+1.76%-1.92 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/19/14 WETF Outperform 5Y $9.75 $10.26
( -6.22%)
+5.23%+2.88%+2.35 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/14 UA Outperform 5Y $47.88 $66.75
( -3.57%)
+39.41%+1.85%+37.56 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/12/14 UBNT Outperform 3Y $31.27 $38.20
( -4.36%)
+22.16%+2.29%+19.87 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/27/14 FB Outperform 5Y $60.96 $72.65
( -2.71%)
+19.18%+4.57%+14.61 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/12/14 Z Outperform 5Y $80.38 $143.53
( -3.29%)
+78.56%+3.67%+74.89 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
03/12/14 LNKD Outperform 5Y $199.68 $180.64
( -3.55%)
-9.54%+3.67%-13.21 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
02/26/14 SHLO Outperform 5Y $19.43 $17.00
( -0.64%)
-12.51%+4.55%-17.05 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
02/18/14 PRLB Outperform 5Y $82.14 $81.00
( -0.89%)
-1.39%+4.84%-6.23
02/07/14 AMZN Outperform 5Y $352.86 $312.99
( -2.95%)
-11.30%+8.48%-19.78
02/06/14 AFOP Outperform 3Y $12.05 $13.38
( +1.83%)
+11.04%+9.33%+1.71 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/22/14 NGVC Outperform 5Y $41.83 $22.68
( -5.03%)
-45.77%+4.78%-50.55 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/21/14 STMP Outperform 5Y $38.39 $31.63
( -8.32%)
-17.61%+4.54%-22.15 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/21/14 OLED Outperform 5Y $33.65 $30.66
( -2.67%)
-8.88%+5.36%-14.24 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/17/14 TSLA Outperform 5Y $169.38 $223.30
( -2.46%)
+31.83%+4.85%+26.98 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/16/14 ISRG Outperform 5Y $416.43 $457.55
( -2.02%)
+9.87%+4.75%+5.13
01/15/14 SSYS Outperform 5Y $120.10 $100.58
( -4.16%)
-16.25%+4.89%-21.15
12/26/13 PII Outperform 5Y $142.05 $147.54
( -1.90%)
+3.87%+5.32%-1.45 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 INVN Outperform 5Y $17.33 $23.01
( +0.35%)
+32.78%+5.57%+27.20 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 AMBA Outperform 5Y $28.49 $28.61
( -3.51%)
+0.42%+5.57%-5.15 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/24/13 SCTY Outperform 5Y $56.35 $71.53
( -3.72%)
+26.94%+5.64%+21.30 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/23/13 SODA Outperform 5Y $52.44 $33.00
( +0.73%)
-37.07%+5.82%-42.89 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/23/13 ULTA Outperform 5Y $95.17 $92.33
( -1.91%)
-2.98%+5.85%-8.84 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/02/13 DPZ Outperform 5Y $68.20 $72.00
( -2.11%)
+5.57%+6.59%-1.02 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
12/02/13 MELI Outperform NS $110.17 $92.50
( -1.69%)
-16.04%+6.63%-22.66
11/19/13 FF Outperform NS $16.83 $15.76
( -2.78%)
-6.38%+7.55%-13.92
11/19/13 LNN Outperform NS $80.04 $80.95
( -1.35%)
+1.14%+7.55%-6.41
11/05/13 BOFI Outperform 5Y $62.01 $74.59
( -0.44%)
+20.29%+9.62%+10.66
11/05/13 CPSI Outperform 5Y $58.48 $65.82
( -0.78%)
+12.55%+9.62%+2.93
11/04/13 CECE Outperform 5Y $17.73 $13.58
( -3.89%)
-23.42%+9.29%-32.71 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/29/13 DORM Outperform 5Y $48.90 $43.38
( -1.43%)
-11.29%+9.14%-20.43 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/25/13 DDD Outperform 5Y $57.98 $50.13
( -10.59%)
-13.54%+10.02%-23.56 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
10/25/13 AAPL Outperform 5Y $74.60 $95.60
( -2.60%)
+28.15%+10.02%+18.14
10/24/13 NATH Outperform 5Y $51.50 $49.71
( -1.27%)
-3.48%+10.39%-13.86
10/23/13 LGF Outperform 5Y $36.44 $30.80
( -1.85%)
-15.47%+10.46%-25.93 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
09/04/13 BRK-B Outperform 5Y $112.07 $125.43
( -1.81%)
+11.92%+16.45%-4.53
01/25/13 SPB Outperform 5Y $48.60 $83.40
( -1.33%)
+71.60%+28.80%+42.80
01/25/13 JBSS Outperform 5Y $18.50 $26.45
( -1.01%)
+42.98%+28.80%+14.17
01/25/13 YHOO Outperform 5Y $20.32 $35.81
( -2.16%)
+76.23%+29.04%+47.19
01/22/13 CL Outperform 5Y $52.39 $63.40
( -4.10%)
+21.00%+29.71%-8.71
01/22/13 COST Outperform 5Y $99.75 $117.54
( -0.54%)
+17.83%+29.71%-11.88
01/22/13 FDP Outperform 5Y $25.53 $29.94
( -0.17%)
+17.27%+30.18%-12.91
07/26/10 IMAX Outperform NS $14.05 $26.29
( -0.79%)
+87.12%+74.58%+12.53 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/28/08 ARII Outperform 5Y $19.69 $68.42
( -3.27%)
+247.57%+43.01%+204.55 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
04/17/08 PRPX Outperform 5Y $11.34 $11.79
( 0%)
+3.93%+46.87%-42.95 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/14/08 SNHY Outperform 5Y $12.01 $36.48
( -2.98%)
+203.73%+42.56%+161.17 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
01/03/08 CCJ Outperform 5Y $37.98 $20.16
( -1.85%)
-46.91%+38.87%-85.78 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/23/07 LNDC Outperform 5Y $11.80 $12.21
( -1.13%)
+3.47%+41.40%-37.92
11/13/07 CRESY Outperform 5Y $18.74 $13.00
( -5.04%)
-30.64%+39.16%-69.80
11/12/07 ARDNA Outperform 5Y $103.44 $126.38
( 0%)
+22.17%+39.31%-17.14 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
11/12/07 MRT Outperform 5Y $12.79 $6.89
( 0%)
-46.13%+39.31%-85.44
11/12/07 ZUMZ Outperform 5Y $26.00 $27.85
( -1.49%)
+7.12%+39.31%-32.20
10/29/07 FCX Outperform 5Y $47.76 $37.22
( -1.74%)
-22.07%+31.43%-53.49
10/22/07 AKO-A Outperform 5Y $16.82 $18.05
( +0.84%)
+7.33%+35.90%-28.56
09/28/07 TSCO Outperform 5Y $11.04 $62.17
( -2.57%)
+463.21%+32.36%+430.86
09/24/07 FLO Outperform 5Y $8.29 $19.09
( -2.90%)
+130.30%+32.73%+97.57
08/03/07 JMBA Outperform NS $37.55 $11.92
( -3.17%)
-68.26%+38.00%-106.26
07/25/07 LOOP Outperform 5Y $22.97 $19.17
( 0%)
-16.54%+34.06%-50.61 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
06/21/07 NBFAQ Underperform 5Y $2.59 $0.00
( 0%)
-99.98%+34.53%+134.51
06/15/07 AEO Outperform 5Y $19.16 $10.66
( -1.30%)
-44.36%+32.76%-77.12
06/13/07 BLOBQ Underperform 5Y $4.00 $0.04
( 0%)
-99.00%+35.32%+134.32
05/31/07 GWR Outperform 5Y $32.40 $99.73
( -0.78%)
+207.81%+33.08%+174.73
05/16/07 WLP Outperform NS $79.61 $109.81
( -2.37%)
+37.94%+35.25%+2.69
05/16/07 NSC Outperform 5Y $47.18 $101.66
( -1.92%)
+115.49%+35.22%+80.27
05/14/07 DLIA Outperform 5Y $8.45 $0.62
( -1.17%)
-92.72%+35.42%-128.14 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 CWST Underperform NS $9.34 $4.72
( -1.67%)
-49.46%+35.25%+84.71 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
05/14/07 CBOU Underperform 5Y $6.87 $15.99
( 0%)
+132.68%+35.43%-97.25 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies

Results 1 - 75 of 153 :   1 2 3 Next »

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