$23.90

-0.90 (-3.63%)

10/7/2008 3:45 PM

Fossil, Inc. (FOSL)

CAPS Rating:

The Company is a design, development, marketing and distribution company that focus in consumer fashion accessories.

Rating a stock in CAPS consists of three components:

Your call - Will this stock outperform or underperform the S&P 500? Successful picks are measured in terms of whether or not you were correct and by how many percentage points.

Your time frame - A guideline for other members to see whether your thinking is short or long-term. Time frame is also used to calculate the stock rating, but is not used in the scoring of your pick.

Your pitch - Here's your chance to offer more detailed thoughts, analysis, concerns, or the rationale behind your call. The pitch is optional and may be added later.

Each time you rate a stock, CAPS updates the community intelligence for the company, which may or may not change its CAPS rating. For more information, visit the Help tab at the top of the page.

You aren't currently rating FOSL

Add Stock to Watchlist

What the Community Thinks

Total Members

208 Outperforms

32 Underperforms

All-Stars

43 Outperforms

7 Underperforms

Wall Street

6 Outperforms

1 Underperforms

Members bullish on FOSL are also bullish on:

Members bearish on FOSL are also bearish on:

Ticker Tags

Small Cap (1922), Recreational Goods, Other (10)
Suggest a tag

Fossil, Inc. At A Glance

Current Price:	$23.90
Last Trade Time:	10/7/2008 3:45 PM
Open:	$24.96
Previous Close:	$24.80
Daily Range:	$23.58 - $25.98
52-Week Range:	$22.26 - $46.25
Volume:	1,029,996
Market Cap:	$1.68B
P/E Ratio:	12.22
Compare Our Special Broker Offers!

Stock Trends

FOSL VS S&P 500 (SPY)

News & Discussion Boards

Other News Headlines for FOSL

Sector Snap: Specialty apparel retailers fall
9/17/2008 11:09:00 AM - AP
Fossil shares rise on strong 2Q earnings
8/12/2008 7:02:00 PM - AP
Movers roundup: InterContinental Hotels, Fossil
8/12/2008 2:40:00 PM - AP
Outlook roundup: Comverge, PNM Resources
8/12/2008 10:21:00 AM - AP

More Headlines...

Top Bull Pitch

Recs

1 Fossil, Inc. (FOSL)

Avatar Knashbash (30.62) Submitted: 4/24/08 6:39 PM

Fossil took a hit last year after the SEC launched an investigation. Now that they're in the clear the stock is ready to take off. Fourth-quarter net income increased an impressive 51.4% to $53.1 million, or $0.75 per share. Net sales increased 18.5% to $463.1 million. In even more heartening news, ...More

Replies: 0 | Reply | Permalink

Top Bear Pitch

Recs

1 Fossil, Inc. (FOSL)

Avatar reverendrun02 (< 20) Submitted: 1/25/08 1:35 AM

I agree. I have heard that sales of watches are down 15 to 20% in the US and flat to slightly down in Europe. Big department stores are purchasing less Fossil watches and watch makers are asking their suppliers to hold parts until April. Who wants to buy a $100 watch when they are about to lose t...More

Replies: 0 | Reply | Permalink

CAPS Members

Show Me:

Sort by:

picks per page. CHANGE

Results 1 - 5 of 31 : 1 2 3 4 5 Next »

Recs 0 (FOSL) dexion10 (44.68) Submitted: 10/02/08 10:18 AM : Start Price: $27.06 FOSL Score: 0.02 R.I.P CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY - XMAS GIFTS.... I see some insider selling (in this market - if your selling you're betting your stock can't bounce). Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (FOSL) chessandmarket (< 20) Submitted: 10/01/08 7:45 PM : Start Price: $27.77 FOSL Score: -0.87 This isn't a homerun stock, which is why I haven't added to my portfolio. But it should generate steady returns for the years to come. Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (FOSL) MiamiStuDog (92.70) Submitted: 8/30/08 11:37 AM : Start Price: $29.40 FOSL Score: 3.65 Is the worst over in the market? I don’t have the answer to that question, but I am seeing a lot a promising companies show up in my screening and evaluation process, which I am taking as a positive sign. One of the better profiled companies I’m seeing is Fossil (FOSL). Those who’ve read my pitches will know that I’m not a “story stock” guy, and I’m not going to get into ideas of aspirational brands, growing affluence overseas, or the con ideas of consumer stress and recession. What I do see is a company which has been consistently profitable, with positive Net Income over the last 10 years, with growth in net Income in seven of those 10 years, ROE’s above 13 for the last decade and ROA’s above 9 for the decade. Profitability looks good, although the Profit Margin is a bit low; I normally like to see all figures in double-digits, but in this case the high ROE makes up for the slightly lower Profit Margin. Cash Flow has been positive for 10-years, and Operating Cash Flow is rising. I tend to focus more on OCF than on total cash flow, as it tells me results of the company’s operations (thus the name) rather than extraneous items like sale/buyback of shares. LT-Debt is practically non-existent, which tells me that FOSL should be able to ride out any recession, and position itself well against the competition when the cycle turns. Let’s not forget that a recession hits everyone. It’s the companies that managed themselves well in the up-cycle who will be best positioned to survive the down-cycle, and thus emerge strongest in the next up-cycle. FOSL currently trades at a PE of 15.1, slightly below the S&P average, below its peer group, and toward the lower end of its own 5-year range. PEG, per Yahoo Finance, is at 0.74. My valuation formulas suggest to me a fair-value range in the low to mid-40’s, whereas the stock trades today at 29.96. Taking the low end of my range, I get a target price of 39.82. I believe the stock to be about 33% undervalued. (S&P gives it a target price of $41). The stock sits above its 50-day average but below its 200-day, a technical position I consider to be a potential breakout position; people have started to buy it again, but if you get it now, you are still ahead of the crowd. I think this is a good stock to buy through the low-30’s, and am a buyer for my real-world portfolio. A summary of some of the statistics used is found below. Happy Investing! Fossil Inc. (FOSL) ROE 19% ROA 13% Profit Margin 9% Operating Margin 14% Average Profitability 14% 2-year CAGR Equity 21% 5-year expected EPS Growth 18% P/E 15.1 EPS Last Year 1.75 EPS Today 1.98 EPS Next Year Forecast 2.70 PEG Ratio 0.74 Estimated Value Range - Low 39.82 Estimated Value Range - High 46.00 Today's Price 29.96 Low Value Range 39.82 Potential Gain 33% Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (FOSL) bigjim50 (< 20) Submitted: 8/29/08 12:13 PM : Start Price: $29.61 FOSL Score: 3.14 Might take a little longer to realize the gain, but it will come. Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out. Recs 0 (FOSL) mdabat (49.89) Submitted: 8/29/08 6:44 AM : Start Price: $29.71 FOSL Score: 3.34 pros: 1)margins are above both industry and 5 year averages, shows that the company is enjoying increasing profitability. 2)5 year sales and eps growth has been consistent at around 16.6%, and the trend shows that both are accelerating, with the exception of sales growth in MRQ, which slightly declined to 15.3%. I can safely assume such a decrease is due to the weakening economy. However such numbers are impressive in comparison to the industry where sales grew by 1.4% in the latest quarter. 3)Fossil is financially very healthy with higher than average current, quick and debt-to-equity ratios 4)Fossil is becoming more effecient in its operations. Inventory turnover stands at 2.7 (around its average), while the industry is at 1.3, therefore they turnover their inventories at double the speed the industry does. In addition, days sales outstanding decreased, showing that they are recieving their A/R faster than usual. 5)PEG ratio of 0.6, might signify good value 6)insider ownership of 44% Cons: 1)Cashflows: in its TTM, Fossil had a FCF/Sales ratio of 4.2%, showing that they extracted 4.2 cents of free cash flow per dollar of sales. In addition, FCF decreased by 30%, probably due to high capital spending. Fossil must watch out and spend their FCF wisely for it to benefit shareholders in the long run. 2)license expiration holds the risk of losing valuable brands they produce under, such as Armani, Burberry, Adidas, etc.. 3)Valuation: P/E, P/S, P/CF slightly above industry averages, then again, this could be due to their better positioning in the marketplace. Valuation: a. FCF growth = 10% b. Growth rate = 2% [due to weakening economy] c. discount rate = 9% [due to brand power, size and market position] fair value = $30.83 multiples average fair value = $30.61 Final Note: Continued capital expenditure is hurting FCF growth, however, such expenditure (if done effectively) can significantly increase the stock fair value in the future, especially after Fossil completes the expansion of its stores, and the development of its new products/refinement of its existing products to meet consumer demand Report this Post Replies: 0 \| Reply \| Permalink Oops! There appears to be a problem with your comment. Check to see if there's something you left out.
Results 1 - 5 of 31 : 1 2 3 4 5 Next »

Wall Street

Results 1 - 7 of 7

picks per page. CHANGE Expand All Pitches Collapse All Pitches

Top Pick	Member Name	Member Rating	Start Date	Call	Time Frame	Start Price	Stock Gain	S&P Gain	Score	Pitch
	TrackRonBaron	< 20	03/31/08		NS	$30.54	-21.74%	-24.20%	+2.46
	TrackPiperJaff	59.14	02/05/08		NS	$35.30	-32.29%	-26.36%	-5.94
	TrackCowenandCo	76.43	11/02/07		NS	$35.97	-33.56%	-33.85%	+0.30
	TrackSoros	< 20	09/30/07		NS	$37.36	-36.03%	-34.44%	-1.59
	TrackNWQ	< 20	09/30/07		NS	$37.36	-36.03%	-34.44%	-1.59
	TrackJimCramer	83.84	09/24/07		3W	$36.88	-35.20%	-34.06%	+1.14
	TrackWachovia	< 20	02/21/07		NS	$27.92	-14.40%	-31.30%	+16.90

Results 1 - 7 of 7

Beat this Stock

Clicking "Beat this Stock!" will bring you to a company with a higher rating than the one you're currently viewing.

Even though CAPS shows only one- to five-star rankings, behind the scenes, all companies in CAPS have a distinct numerical ranking. In other words, there is a No. 1 stock in CAPS and a worst-ranked stock in CAPS. When you arrive at the top-ranked stock, clicking "Beat this Stock!" will cause the page to refresh.

That is, until there is a new No. 1 stock!

These companies do not represent formal Motley Fool recommendations. Please do your own due diligence before investing. Fool on.