December 26, 2012
– Comments (4)
1. Real Estate goes up in price by 5% or more.
2. S&P 500 ends 2013 above 1700.
3. The Federal government will spend more in 2013 than was spent in 2012.
4. Official Core CPI inflation will be less than 4%
I think #3 is a given. The other 3 have chances too but 1 and 2 depend a lot on what Washington does.
IMO: #3 and #4 are a given. #1 is a very like one. #2 have has a very low chance.
My second prediction is the one that is risky. That would need just over 20% for the year. The other three have an extremely high chance of occuring.
The housing market finally turned the corner during 2012, and continued improvement will probably result in better than predicted economic results.
The government always spends more than the previous year, even when politicians are talking about cuts. Core inflation could come close to 4%, but with international trade, and no new major increases in money printing, I think it stays under.