Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ:AVDL)

Operating Income after Depr. / Ent. Value = 39%

Whenever I start thinking I screwed up absolutely every trade in 2015, I just go back and look at my Tweets on Flamel during the year. While my price points weren't ideal, I still managed to tranche trade the stock for strong profits and dumped my last bloc close to the year highs. Then I watched my Flamel profits remain solid near the top of the zzporte gains list as the stocks we held on to slipped into the swamp. I haven't trusted the stock since it plunged about 50% intraday on approval of a competitor's generic neostigmine a year ago. I bought on that dip and was lucky to escape when the stock rebounded, but my skepticism about long-term strength seems to have been well-founded. The latest smack to the stock came in the last trading session of the year, when the stock plummeted from 14's to 12 on word of approval of a second competing neostigmine generic.

The truth is, it is very difficult to model Flamel's future revenues from the Eclat generic pipeline, and their legacy Micropump/Medusa platform remains as dubious and opaque as ever. Flamel has a new PDUFA for an unspecified Eclat generic on April 26, and they've had a very good although not spotless record with the FDA thus far. That makes Flamel tempting for a new zzporte position given our prior success with the stock, but lately I've been trying to move away from positions at risk for surprising buzzcuts. In addition, our attempts to replicate prior successes with the same stocks haven't typically gone well. For that reason, I think Flamel is going to remain a CAPS-only play for the time being.