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$5.72 -$0.19 (-3.2%)

04:30 PM EDT on 09/18/20

MediciNova, Inc. (NASDAQ:MNOV)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

Acquire & dvlp high-qlty small molecule therapeuts

Current Price $5.72 Mkt Cap $255.8M
Open $5.98 P/E Ratio 0.00
Prev. Close $5.72 Div. (Yield) $0.00 (0.0%)
Daily Range $5.68 - $5.98 Volume 167,336
52-Wk Range $2.79 - $13.25 Avg. Daily Vol. 2,512,445

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All Players

13 Outperform
10 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

4 Outperform
8 Underperform
 

Wall Street

0 Outperform
0 Underperform
 

Top NASDAQ:MNOV Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

zzlangerhans (98.84)
Submitted February 15, 2014

Add MediciNova to the NASH bandwagon. In January the company claimed positive results from preclinical testing of MN-001 small molecule 5-LO pathway inhibitor in a mouse model of NASH and they state they are preparing for a phase II trial in humans.… More

zzlangerhans (98.84)
Submitted February 25, 2016

So far in 2016, MediciNova has been proving that hope is not dead for the small cap biopharma sector. Or, in 2016, MediciNova has been proving that the sector downturn hasn't made it impossible to manipulate low float stocks upward to facilitate a… More

NASDAQ:MNOV VS S&P 500 (SPY)

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Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about MNOV.

Recs

0
Member Avatar DaytradingStars (88.23) Submitted: 6/14/2020 2:18:29 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.44 NASDAQ:MNOV Score: +5.79

230 mln market cap / no sales lol

Recs

0
Member Avatar LifeScientist (33.27) Submitted: 3/2/2016 7:38:22 PM : Underperform Start Price: $6.06 NASDAQ:MNOV Score: +71.94

good thesis for upcoming short

Recs

2
Member Avatar zzlangerhans (98.84) Submitted: 2/25/2016 1:01:15 PM : Underperform Start Price: $6.70 NASDAQ:MNOV Score: +85.65

So far in 2016, MediciNova has been proving that hope is not dead for the small cap biopharma sector. Or, in 2016, MediciNova has been proving that the sector downturn hasn't made it impossible to manipulate low float stocks upward to facilitate a dilutive financing.

I'm going to bet that the latter version is closer to the truth. The stock's behavior over the last three months has followed the classic parabolic pattern despite a long history of futility and an absence of significant catalysts. No one reliable seems to have a very strong opinion regarding the reason for the stock's ascent, although most attention seems to be focused on the placebo-controlled phase II trial of ibudilast for ALS. The problem with the ALS theory is that dozens of small cap biopharmas are running longshot midstage trials or even phase III trials for important indications and their share prices have been declining towards cash and below. I might have bought that premise in mid 2015, but not now.

Regarding the ibudilast ALS trial, the interim data released in December had very weak indicators regarding efficacy. Since the placebo-controlled trial is blinded, the company could only claim that the combined active and placebo groups seemed to be showing signs of slower deterioration than would be expected historically. Trying to divine a benefit in the active group by looking at the numbers from combined active and placebo groups has turned out be a canard time and time again, but I guess traders will never learn. Ibudilast is a phosphodiesterase inhibitor originally designated as a treatment for substance addiction, but that line of development seems to be going nowhere. Now it's been repurposed for ALS and multiple sclerosis, popular targets for small cap biopharmas like Neuralstem and Opexa that are more concerned with selling stock than developing real drugs. Speaking of MS, enrollment in the SPRINT-MS phase IIb trial of ibudilast for multiple sclerosis was completed in June 2015. No word on when we can expect to see topline data.

It's difficult to see where MediciNova stands in their development timeline since they've stopped releasing quarterly earnings PR. I'm not sure if they hold conference calls, but I haven't seen any links to them. Their 8K's are very light on detail as well. Absence of quarterly PR is a huge red flag regarding the legitimacy of drug development efforts.

Bottom line, I don't think there's anything to MediciNova's run. It will reach its peak and then either dribble back to baseline slowly or crash, depending on the price they can raise at and whether they decide to bite the bullet on a trial failure or keep muddying the waters. In the meantime, MediciNova has rocketed straight to the top of my short watchlist.

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in MNOV.

Score Leader

portefeuille

portefeuille (98.70) Score: +180.17

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in MNOV.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
portefeuille2 99.32 4/11/2014 10/31/2019 Outperform 5Y $2.00 +186.00% +81.84% +104.16 0 Comment
portefeuille3 97.51 4/11/2014 Outperform 5Y $2.00 +186.00% +82.12% +103.88 0 Comment
ababrmon 82.17 3/24/2014 Outperform 1Y $2.12 +169.81% +77.47% +92.34 0 Comment
zzlangerhans 98.84 2/25/2016 Underperform 1Y $6.70 -14.59% +71.06% +85.65 1 Comment
stainsolution 73.75 3/12/2014 Outperform 5Y $2.19 +161.19% +76.82% +84.36 0 Comment
LifeScientist 33.27 3/3/2016 Underperform 3M $6.06 -5.61% +66.33% +71.94 1 Comment
deepcrisis 98.76 7/9/2018 Underperform 5Y $8.47 -32.47% +19.56% +52.03 0 Comment
NorteClub 66.43 7/29/2020 Underperform 5Y $8.66 -33.95% +2.65% +36.60 0 Comment
dollarsandcents1 < 20 10/2/2015 Outperform 5Y $2.79 +105.02% +73.46% +31.56 0 Comment
DaytradingStars 88.23 6/15/2020 Underperform 5Y $5.44 +5.15% +10.93% +5.79 1 Comment

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