Hostess Brands (NASDAQ:TWNK)

Indicators have surged for shares of TWNK… a clear sign that someone is making a big bet that the stock will surge higher.
How high could it go?

Well, shortly after TWNK went public a few years ago, the stock surged to a high just above $17.

The stock had been trading in a bit of a wide range ever since. When the coronavirus crisis sent the broad sock market lower, however, TWNK shares fell as low as $9.33.

Since then, the stock has started to rebound. And that's a sign of optimism as investors realize how much strength there is in the comfort food business.

So my guess is that a buyout deal will be priced somewhere near the old high at $17.

It will give anyone who bought near the high a chance to get out of their investment without a major loss. And it would give new investors a chance to lock in a very attractive profit!

Plus, based on TWNK’s rising sales and the sustainable shift towards more people learning and working from home, an acquirer would pick up some very iconic brands just as more consumers are buying!

In that light, a buyout would make perfect sense for a big food company like General Mills (GIS) or Kellogg's (K).

And considering TWNK's market cap is only $1.5 billion (compared to $36 billion for GIS and $22 billion for K), a buyout wouldn't be prohibitively expensive — even at a nice premium to where its shares are trading today.

There is a reasonable path of outperformance with regards to Q4 and FY20 numbers. The Street is completely out to lunch with this name. Q4 numbers look light relative to Nielsen data. While consensus is not baking in Voortman numbers into FY20.

Overall, this is an underappreciated growth story in US Consumer Staples CPG with HSD topline and industry leading margins. DCF with modest assumptions (WAAC: 7%, g: 1.5%) and modest outyear assumptions 20bps EBIT run-rate and 4% topline FY23-30 gets you around $17/share.

Dont even try using a multiple-based approach bc no direct comps exist. Closest is Flowers (FLO) but that trades at a 2-3 turn premium for no reason (lower growth/margins, inferior category exposure (e.g., bread), no DSD-transition margin story)